Four possible scenarios

On April 12, we are being called to choose the next government, but this is no ordinary general election. Three weeks ago we decided what our future relations with the European Union should be, but in view of the political circumstances, this decision has to be sealed in the general election.

I appeal to all voters to give their first preference to a Nationalist Party candidate. Since EU membership is a major issue, they should also give their second and third preferences to Alternattiva Demokratika candidates, and continue giving preferences to all remaining PN candidates. My fear is that if the Labour Party wins a relative majority of the votes and AD fails to elect an MP, Malta will not join the EU next year, even though the PN and AD together obtain an absolute majority of votes.

I see four possible scenarios.

Scenario 1. The PN obtains an absolute majority of valid votes (50%+1). If it does not obtain an absolute majority of seats, the constitutional majority rule applies. There is nothing to say about that. The will of the majority has to be respected. Malta joins the EU in 2004.

Scenario 2. The MLP obtains an absolute majority of valid votes (50%+1). If it does not obtain an absolute majority of seats, the constitutional majority rule applies. There is nothing to say about that. The will of the majority has to be respected. Very sadly, I would only say that Malta would not join the EU next year.

Scenario 3. The PN obtains a relative majority (less than 50%) of valid votes. If AD does not win a seat the Constitution ensures the PN an absolute parliamentary majority. If AD manages to elect a candidate and the PN does not have an absolute majority in Parliament, a coalition can be formed and Malta can join the EU in 2004 because AD supports EU membership.

Scenario 4. The MLP obtains a relative majority (less than 50%) of valid votes. If AD fails to elect a candidate, the Labour Party would have an absolute majority in Parliament. Although PN and AD together would have an absolute majority of votes and both parties agree that Malta should join the EU, the will of the absolute majority will not be respected.

To make things more clear let me try to picture the situation in Scenario 4.

MLP: 49% of votes; PN: 48%; AD: 3% (no candidates elected).

In this case the MLP gets an absolute majority in Parliament. The PN and AD together get 51% of the valid votes and the EU bus is missed.

If those who give their first preference to a PN candidate give their second and third preferences to AD (according to the number of candidates) and then continue giving preferences to all remaining PN candidates there is a good chance that AD elects an MP. If this happens, the fear of not joining EU next year as explained in Scenario 4 can also be eliminated.

If AD manages to elect a candidate, then the majority rule does not apply because no party had obtained an absolute majority of votes. A coalition government can be formed between PN and AD who both believe in EU membership.

On the other hand, if the PN obtains an absolute majority of first preference votes (i.e., 50%+1) then the Constitution ensures that it would get an absolute majority of seats in Parliament. If this voting pattern is followed, out of four possible scenarios we can count on three of them.

These elections are not being contested simply to have a Nationalist government instead of Labour. The future of our country is at stake. All Nationalists who have the interest of their country at heart and wish to be part of a united Europe should follow this pattern when voting. If not we stand a good chance of not joining the EU in the next enlargement.

I have always believed that my country is a priority over any political party. Our country is calling us to decide whether we want to be part of the European concert or risk possible political isolation. That is the choice!