Predicting the future is never easy, especially during such uncertain times, but Giulia Magri reached out to a few experts on a range of subjects to have a go.
COVID-19: ‘New drugs will further reduce hospitalisations’
James DeGaetano, president of College of Pathologists
Many years ago, I came across a Reader’s Digest edition from 1958. In it, there was an interesting article whereby it was predicted that, by the end of the 1980s, the cure for cancer would have been found and deaths from cancer would be a thing of the past.
Fast forward more than 30 years after that prediction and, although advances in cancer treatment have been remarkable, we’re still far away from that holy grail.
Predictions in the field of medicine are fraught with danger because there are so many variables and this is by no means an exact science. In science, experimentation is fundamental. In the field of medicine, experimentation is often not possible.
And, contrary to popular belief, evidence-based medicine isn’t always a given.
Pandemics generally last between two to five years. Eventually they peter out. Viruses mutate. It is what they do. The latest variant, the Omicron, is highly contagious but apparently less virulent.
The situation will get worse before it gets better. There may be more waves of infections in 2022.
Omicron may be the last major variant or there may be one or two others. It depends on how quickly global vaccination is achieved.
It does seem, however, that we are slowly getting to the point where coronavirus will become less of a threat. Very likely, over the next year everyone will either be vaccinated or have contracted the virus.
Yearly vaccinations, as a minimum, will be the norm as with the influenza vaccine.
Elections: ‘Abela to take oath with comfortable parliament majority’
George Vital Zammit, academic and public policy lecturer
The certainty about 2022 is that the Maltese electorate will be called to the polls.
One variable that might impinge on the selection of the appropriate time for this national appointment is the state of the pandemic.
While coffee mornings and political party activities are already in full swing, we might be assisting to the first general election with limitations on public gatherings. Mass meetings might be a thing of the past but that is yet to be seen.
Repeatedly, surveys in 2021 have shown that 2022 will probably be the most predictable election in history.
Statistical precision has improved and different pollsters have obtained almost identical readings. What does this mean?
The PL has cemented itself as the party in government, which, despite its grave shortcomings in governance (with some improvements from the Muscat administration but several relapses, nonetheless), continues to receive a steady and consistent approval.
This pattern remained unencumbered despite the election of two leaders of the opposition.
The PL remains a homogenous bloc and dissent, while present, is rarely manifested in public. Moreover, the PL in government has mastered the power of incumbency with an extraordinary ability to pander to and serve diverse interests.
The most important indication sees the prime minister doubling on the leader of the opposition in the trust rating.
Unless you apply Murphy’s Law, Robert Abela will be taking the oath of office one fine Monday morning during 2022 with a new fresh mandate.
One that will put him in history for the comfortable majority in parliament but also one that will see him constrained to take decisive measures to restore Malta’s credibility in international fora.
Migration: ‘Our prosperity depends on inclusion’
Maria Pisani, academic and director of Integra Foundation
Sadly, it’s easy to predict that people will continue to flee their homes as a result of war, conflict and poverty whilst COVID-19 has also exacerbated global inequalities, pushing young people in particular to seek security elsewhere.
Migrants have been crossing the Mediterranean for more than 20 years, so can hardly be construed as unexpected. There is no excuse for being unprepared.
As long as the government of Malta continues to respond to the movement of refugees in crisis mode, lives will continue to be lost at sea, will continue to be detained illegally, rights will continue to be violated and reception services will continue to struggle to keep up with basic care.
In 2022, the well-being of Maltese society will continue to depend on people migrating to Malta to offer their diverse knowledge and skills.
Since the coronavirus pandemic, migration trends have continued to shift.
As many EU citizens returned home, more people arrived from outside the EU. Migrants continue to maintain key sectors such as healthcare and the hospitality industry.
Indeed, the government has made a big effort to entice people to move to Malta but it needs to do a lot better if we need and expect them to stay.
Stability can be secured by providing migrants the sense of security that they deserve.
This includes creating clear and accessible pathways to residency and citizenship, introducing policies that facilitate, rather than obstruct, inclusion, addressing racism with a commitment to implementing the anti-racism strategy in a meaningful way and committing to an inclusive discourse that recognises and respects the contribution that migrants from around the world are making to Maltese society.
There’s an election in the offing.
We will have to wait and see if either party will resort to anti-immigrant rhetoric as a tried-and-tested strategy to generate fervour, sow division (like we need even more?) and secure votes.
But, to be sure, the ‘citizen first’ rhetoric is counter intuitive: the nation’s economic, health and social prosperity depends on inclusion: migrants and all.
Economy: ‘Monetary policy cannot resolve logistic disruption’
John Cassar White, financial analyst
The EU’s latest forecasts published in November paint an encouraging scenario for Malta’s economic prospects for 2022.
GDP growth at 6.2 per cent is expected to be higher than the EU average of 5 per cent. Inflation projected at 1.6 per cent should remain subdued.
When Omicron erupted late in November and with it spreading fast in European countries, some doubts are cast on whether Malta’s tourism industry would recover fast enough to boost the projected economic recovery in 2022.
Inflation is another challenge that the Maltese economy, like that of other European Union member states, will have to address in 2022.
The European Central Bank is forecasting a decline in inflation from the end of 2022.
Still, the drivers of global inflation persist: rising energy prices, shortage of labour in specific sectors and supply chain disruptions could drive prices higher. Monetary policy cannot resolve logistic disruption.
Malta’s top priority will be removing the country from the FATF grey list.
This is an achievable objective.
Still, it remains to be seen to what extent the consequences of the greylisting would affect direct foreign investment decisions in the medium-term.
Environment: ‘We need to adapt to the new reality’
Simone Borg, Climate Action ambassador
Addressing the climate emergency is a priority not in spite of COVID 19 but because of its consequences.
In 2021, at national and EU level, we finalised the road map to transform our economic model into a decarbonised, resource efficient, competitive and socially coherent economy.
2022 will be key to effectively start implementing this road map. Our maturity as a nation, as a European continent depends upon our commitment, creativity and resilience to adapt to this new reality.
As Darwin says “it is not the strongest of the species that survives, not the most intelligent; it is the one most adaptable to change”.
I would just add to that, it is, therefore, our duty not to procrastinate and to leave no one behind.
Tourism: ‘People will want to travel even more’
Marie Avellino, director of the Institute for Tourism, Travel and Culture at the University of Malta
For the tourism sector we can hardly make informed guesses, let alone predictions. At this point, seeing the pandemic-induced scenarios indicates that the outlook is not rosy for tourism, however, we must be cautiously optimistic.
In a worse-case scenario, we will see a similar decline in tourism arrivals as we witnessed in 2021, although this will probably be limited to the first quarter of 2022.
Once we enter the endemic stage, that is, where we accept that COVID-19 is here to stay albeit with much lesser intensity, travel volumes will start to rebound.
This is because the travel industry is very resilient: it is creative, dynamic and hugely responsive to tourist demands.
The demand is there: be it for leisure, business or education people want to travel and will want to do so even more and will be inclined to choose a destination which is perceived as safe.
Tourists do not just perceive safety in the sense of feeling safe when walking around in a city but safety includes feeling secure in the knowledge that the environment is risk free.
To prepare for the sharp demand for touristic services means that, during this quiet period, we should have been investing in new and innovative, good quality products and services, training and investing in human resources and deciding the optimum target markets we want to attract and which are more likely to want and have the means to travel.
Having the new tourism strategy places Malta at a competitive advantage. Now we need the policies to support it.
Education: ‘Technology can take us places we never considered before going’
Colin Calleja , Dean at the Faculty of Education
The pandemic has made us look at every aspect of schooling and learning.
It made us re-examine our instruction, assessment, the role of instructional technology, funding and, above all, the importance of the human connections for learning.
We learned that technology can take us to places we never considered before but we also learned that students need the physical connection to learn, surrounded by classmates, physically applying their learnt understandings and skills together with others, including the teacher.
It also highlighted the glaring inequities of disability, ethnicity and, above all, the socio-economic realities of some.
What we do today will reflect on the world that we will experience tomorrow.
If we fail to address the learning and teaching challenges of today we will fail the world of tomorrow.
Our problems of inequalities, decaying inclusive practices and lack of creative thinking, if not addressed, will continue to widen the learning gap with great consequences to our future where the women and men of tomorrow find themselves “ill-equipped to deal with problems that require critical and innovative thinking”.
Greylist: ‘It all depends how long we stay on it’
JP Fabri, economist and co-founding partner of Seed
Malta faces a number of economic challenges in 2022 mainly stemming from the global operating environment. Globally, the spread of the Omicron variant is already restarting a phase of measures and lockdowns which will further impact already-strained supply chains and increase the uncertainty around a robust economic recovery.
Locally, the focus will remain getting Malta off the grey list.
Although being on the grey list can have several negative effects, it was preceded by a period during which Malta was subject to extensive adverse media, such that the jurisdiction has already been braced for its impacts for some time.
Being greylisted, international banks may continue with their de-risking and terminate or no longer entertain banking relationships with Maltese-domiciled firms. This will impinge internationally-focused companies.
Banks will also face stiff challenges in establishing/reviving correspondent banking relationships and conducting business outside Maltese shores.
Also, as foreign counterparts embark on due diligence and onboarding procedures, the greylisting may affect Malta’s risk rating. This might increase compliance requirements and might also impinge on the ability to enter commercial relationships due to the higher risk ratings.
The extent of the impact depends on the length of time that Malta spends on the grey list.
Greylisting is transitory and the government, together with all the required authorities and stakeholders, need to maintain the pace of reforms.
Entertainment: ‘A test to seriously address the perennial malaise’
Toni Attard, Culture Venture founder and MEIA vice president
2022 will continue with a jittery recovery process due to the ongoing unpredictability of the pandemic.
The long-term impact on the industry, that was first to shut and will be the last to fully reopen, will go beyond 2022.
This year will hopefully provide some breathing space and stability from the uncertainty of the past two years.
I hope 2022 will also provide time and space for creative practitioners who were forced to leave the arts during the pandemic to find their way back on their creative journey.
On a local level, the biggest challenge will be to increase the appetite of audiences to return to arts and entertainment events, giving much-needed confidence and work to artists.
The latest statistics on abysmal interest in arts and cultural events are another wake-up call for all stakeholders to work together to improve the current attendance figures.
With an election on the horizon, 2022 is an opportunity for stronger commitment and investment in the creative economy and a test to seriously address the perennial malaise of the politicisation of the industry that hinders growth in the private sector and jeopardises the credibility of cultural organisations.