Marmarà poll puts Labour ahead by 8.6%
Labour estimated to be leading PN by 25,000 to 29,000 votes
The gap between the Labour and Nationalist parties is expected to narrow when compared to the 2022 general election, as a chunk of PL supporters indicate they will not be voting.
A survey by statistician Vincent Marmarà predicts the gap to be between 25,000 and 29,000 votes in Labour’s favour.
Labour won the last general election by over 39,000 votes.
On the leadership front, 44.4% of voters prefer Labour leader Robert Abela, while PN leader Alex Borg gets 34.7% of the vote.
Unsurprisingly, Abela enjoys high support levels among Labour voters, with 85.6% naming the prime minister as their preferred pick.
Borg enjoys a similar support level of 85.9% among PN voters.
The figures for a general election vote vary depending on the model applied by Marmarà.
Based on the raw responses alone, 46.8% of those surveyed said they will vote for Labour and 38.2% PN. A significant chunk of 11.8% refused to commit their vote, while 3.2% said they will be voting for smaller parties.
This represents a gap of 8.6% between the two parties.
Marmarà observed how the number of uncommitted voters remains high.
Marmarà’s survey estimates the actual gap between Labour and PN to be 10.2%, once the uncommitted voters’ or those who refused to reply are factored in, based on their past voting patterns.
The statistician said both parties have managed to consolidate their core votes.
Marmarà observed how, barring any major events in the country or proposals by the two major parties, the survey numbers have remained consistent. A previous survey last November put the gap between parties at 8.8%.
The survey stresses that vote flows between the two major parties are minimal, with each side largely compensating the other in terms of small gains and losses.
Labour has managed to retain 84.5% of its voters from the 2022 general election, however only 1.4% have jumped ship to the PN.
A total of 7.9% of past Labour voters remain undecided and 5.8% said they will not be voting.
Only 0.4% said they will be voting for smaller parties.
The Nationalist Party has a higher voter retention rate of 89.2% from the 2022 election.
A total of 5.6% of past PN voters say they are undecided, 1.9% will be voting for smaller parties, another 1.9% will not be voting and 1.4% say they will vote for Labour.
The survey was conducted by Sagalytics between 13 and 19 February among 1,200 respondents aged 16 and over.