German election campaign takes off

The German election campaign has now begun in earnest and Thursday's approval of the early poll by the country's constitutional court removed the final hurdle for next month's vote to take place. The court decision was necessary because two rebel MPs from Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's ruling coalition had questioned the constitutionality of having an election a year before the government's mandate had expired.

The opinion polls have consistently pointed towards a victory by the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and their liberal Free Democrat allies (FDP) which means that CDU chairman Angela Merkel should soon become Germany's first woman Chancellor. However, the gap between the two main parties has narrowed recently mainly because of gaffes committed by the Christian Democrats.

First Bavarian premier and CSU leader Edmund Stoiber said in a newspaper interview that East Germans were not as educated as Bavarians and that East Germans should not be allowed to decide the fate of the German election - a reference to the 2002 election when voters in the East backed the SPD-Green ruling coalition in response to the government's management of the flood disaster.

Then Ms Merkel gave the impression she was not that familiar with economic issues when in a television interview she seemed to confuse the terms 'gross' and 'net'. Both these blunders resulted in a decline in support for the Christian Democrats from about 45 per cent to 41 per cent, which is still far higher, however, than support for Mr Schröder's Social Democrats (SPD), which rose to 29 per cent from 25 per cent after the Opposition's mistakes.

Some commentators are now even suggesting that Mr Schröder can actually pull it off and, as he did in 2002, go on to surprise everyone by winning the election, or at least force the CDU/CSU into a grand coalition. I very much doubt Mr Schröder will win, although a grand coalition is possible. In 2002 the two main parties were neck and neck in the polls, with the Opposition enjoying a very slight lead. Mr Schröder's opposition to the Iraq war and his handling of the floods in East Germany, coupled with his charisma, ensured that he was re-elected - by the tiniest of margins.

Today, however, the gap between the two large parties is huge, Mr Schröder has lost a string of state elections, the unemployment rate has reached five million and Mr Stoiber has made it a point of visiting flood areas in Bavaria and to pledge to co-operate with the federal government in helping the flood victims. He also reminded voters that his government (of Bavaria) had spent €670 million on flood-prevention measures over the past six years. One CDU MP, Wolfgang Bosbach, remarked recently: "Even if it rains without interruption between now and September 18 (election day), it will not help Gerhard Schröder."

It is also true that Mr Schröder has made it absolutely clear that Germany will not support any military action in Iran - thus playing on German fears about war - and hoping to gain votes as he did three years ago because of his opposition to the Iraq war. However, nobody expects any military action in Iran for some time and this issue is not dominating the headlines as Iraq did in September 2002. Furthermore, I doubt the Christian Democrats will be so naïve as to publicly support military action against Iran, knowing well that this could cost them dearly.

The Social Democrats' main asset in the contest against Ms Merkel is Mr Schröder - some would call him a liability because of the government's poor economic record - however he is far more charismatic than the CDU candidate and more popular than her on a personal level. In fact Ms Merkel has only accepted to participate in one televised debate with Mr Schröder.

One German CDU MP recently described Ms Merkel to a German friend of mine as being "icy cold". So she will have to work on her image. For example, why did she not wear a veil when meeting the Pope during his trip to Germany? Mrs Schröder, the Chancellor's wife, did, in an obvious appeal to Catholic voters.

An interesting development last week was the declaration by the chairman of Mr Schröder's SPD, Franz Muntefering, that he would back a grand coalition with the CDU/CSU should there be a hung Parliament with no overall centre-right or centre-left majority. This has also been backed by senior SPD Cabinet ministers but not, significantly, by Mr Schröder, who said these officials had committed 'gaffes'. The Chancellor knows that he would definitely be excluded from any coalition Cabinet, unlike some of his senior ministers. Mr Muntefering's statement, however, shows that the SPD has more or less given up any hope of winning the election.

The performance of the new Left Party will have an important bearing on the election. Made up of SPD left-wing dissidents such as former leader Oscar Lafontaine (who is the joint leader of the new party) and the former East German Communists, the polls predict support as high as 10 per cent - most of which will come from traditional SPD voters.

In theory, therefore, it is possible for the SPD, Greens and the Left Party to gain a working majority in Parliament, although it is unlikely that the SPD would want to be held hostage to the populist Left Party, which would certainly not support the radical economic reform Germany so badly needs and which is even against the presence of German troops in Afghanistan.

I continue to believe that the most likely outcome of the election is an overall parliamentary majority for the Christian Democrats and the Liberal FDP. A hung parliament is also a possibility, resulting in a grand coalition, but the two main parties have somewhat different views on many issues such as unemployment, the welfare state, taxation and foreign policy, which would create a number of problems for the CDU/CSU and SPD working together.