Gozo will have 52,000 residents by 2042, analysts forecast

Gozo’s population is set to increase by around 11,500 over the next two decades as foreigners move to the island, a study commissioned by the Gozo Regional Development Authority has concluded. 

But while the island's population density will skyrocket, water quality decline and construction waste triple, analysts concluded that overall well-being in Gozo will increase due to an increase in GDP, declines in poverty and better air quality. 

Consultants engaged to forecast demographic change in Gozo said they expect the island's population to rise from 40,191 in 2022 to 46,861 by 2032 and then 51,766 by 2042. At that stage, they expect growth to effectively stop. 

The study, titled Gozo Regional Development Strategy 2023-2033: An Application of the Wellbeing Index, was carried out by E-Cubed Consultants Ltd and commissioned by the Gozo Regional Development Authority.

Analysts said Gozo's population boom will be fuelled by foreigners moving to the island. They expect Gozo's foreign population - which in 2022 numbered  8,557 - to effectively double, rising to 17,842 by 2042.

On the other hand, the Maltese population is only expected to rise by 3,000 people, going from 31,634 in 2022 to 34,608 in 2052.

The study projected its predictions for two separate scenarios: The business-as-usual scenario (BAU), where everything remained relatively the same, and a separate scenario where the Gozo Regional Development Strategy is implemented.

The population growth is expected to be the same under both scenarios.

The study also looked at the growth of housing stock in Gozo. 

Under the business-as-usual scenario, housing will rise from 25,270 in 2022 to 31,962 in 2042, and then increase to 32,723 in 2052.

If the strategy is implemented, the housing stock is expected to slightly increase to 33,051 by 2052.

The predicted increase in population and housing will bring with it a notable increase in construction and demolition waste.

From 1,066 cubic metres of waste generated in 2022, Gozo is now forecast to generate 2,843 cubic metres by 2052 under the BAU scenario, and marginally more if the strategy is implemented.

Analysts say well-being to increase

The study concluded that Gozitan residents' well-being will increase under both scenarios analysed, though implementing the strategy will lead to much larger gains. 

They reached that conclusion by using an index that measured environmental, economic, and social impacts on the population.

In 2052, under the BAU scenario, overall well-being is expected to increase by 28 percentage points. With the implementation of the strategy, it is expected to increase by 41 percentage points.

Analysts said environmental well-being will increase, mainly due to air quality improvements caused by an increase in electric vehicles and increase in renewable energy resources.

However, water quality is set to decrease by a significant 28 percentage points by 2050, under both scenarios. 

The main improvement in well-being is recorded under economic well-being, which, by 2052, is expected to increase by 84 percentage points under the BAU scenario and by 101 percentage points under the strategy. This mainly has to do with an increase in GDP per capita.

The study also reported an improvement in social well-being under both scenarios, due to a decline in early school leavers and a decline in people at risk of poverty.