Greenhouse gas emissions are falling, not rising, new Central Bank report says

Malta’s greenhouse gas emission intensity is falling, not rising, a new Central Bank report has said, arguing that EU data is distorted by emissions generated outside the country.

Several reports over the past months have cited EU data showing a worrying rise in Malta’s greenhouse gas emissions over the years.

However, the report, authored by Aaron Grech, a chief officer at the Central Bank, warns of “significant confusion about Malta’s progress towards carbon neutrality”, brought about by statistical anomalies.

Grech said that while EU data indicates a rise in Malta’s emission intensity (the relationship between a country’s greenhouse gas emissions and its economic output), other data from the United Nations suggests an opposite trend, showing emission intensity at a “historically low” level.

“It is evident that the cause behind these completely different conclusions lies in the difference in definitions used by Eurostat and the UN, and by the way they affect the emissions of the air transportation sector,” the report said.

In practice, the report argues, the Eurostat data includes emissions generated by Malta-registered aircraft, most of which do not operate in Malta.

On the other hand, the UN figures only include emissions that take place within Malta’s territory.

The report says Malta’s aircraft registry has “more than tripled” over the past seven years, with the sector’s greenhouse gas emissions rising twentyfold during this time.

However, only 4.38% of the flights carried out by Malta-registered planes actually take place within Malta’s airspace, the report argues, estimating that only 4% of the sector’s emissions come from flights to or from Malta.

Once this is taken into account, greenhouse gas emissions from Malta’s aviation sector drop from the 4,7 million tonnes reported by Eurostat to 0.194 million tonnes, the report estimates.

Emissions from aviation make up more than three-quarters of all Malta’s emissions reported by Eurostat.

Nevertheless, Malta is still lagging behind in its targets to cut emissions in other sectors, including domestic transport, agriculture and waste, among other things, the report says.

A recent European Commission climate report warned that Malta was among a select group of countries dragging its feet, likely to miss the target by 49 percentage points.

However, this does not mean that Malta’s total greenhouse gas emissions were rising, the Central Bank said, taking umbrage at media reports suggesting otherwise.

In reality, Grech argues, aircraft emissions that took place outside Malta suggest that “by 2024, Malta’s emissions intensity was just over a quarter of what it had been in 2005”.

The report warns that the confusion over Malta’s emissions is tantamount to “public misinformation” that is “highly detrimental to effective climate action”.

“Misinformation could also encourage climate emergency deniers to push for the cessation of climate action policies, arguing that they cause economic pain with no gain for the environment,” Grech argues.