Have Blair and Brown met their match?

Britain's Conservative Party has finally elected a leader who seems to be capable of seriously challenging the Labour Party at the next general election. David Cameron, 39, is the party's fourth leader since the Tories lost power in 1997. He is viewed as a charismatic moderniser who is not associated with the previous conservative governments and who wants to occupy the centre ground in British politics.

"People in this country are crying out for a Conservative Party that is decent, reasonable, sensible, common sense and in it for the long term," he told supporters after his election. He said he wanted to create a "modern compassionate" Conservative Party and that his priorities included the development of "a full-bodied economic policy - not just a tax policy" and the reform the health and education system "to end the opt-out culture of helping a few more people to escape public services". He also promised a tough law and order policy, the reform of the police and an increased role for voluntary groups in combating poverty, drug abuse and family breakdowns.

These comments could easily have been made by Tony Blair, who has won three elections in a row, has seen off four Conservative leaders and whose Labour Party has successfully occupied the centre ground since he became party leader in 1994.

There is no doubt that one of Mr Blair's major political achievements has been to appeal to the middle classes, many of whom would have normally voted for the Conservatives in a general election. However, is this trend about to be reversed? And will Gordon Brown, who will almost certainly take over from Mr Blair is less than two years' time, be as successful in getting the middle class vote at the next general election?

A lot depends on just how Mr Cameron leads the Conservative Party over the next few years - whether he really moves the party towards the centre - and on the behaviour of the Labour Party, especially when Mr Brown takes over from Mr Blair. Mr Cameron seems to understand that Britain has changed since the Conservatives were last in government. "We need to change and we will change," he told his supporters.

The new Tory leader has not yet made any specific policy pledges yet - the next election is at least four years away - but during his first Prime Minister's Question Time on Wednesday he indicated how he intends to lead the party. He rightly told Mr Blair that "the first issue the Prime Minister and I will have to work together on is getting the good parts of the government's Education Bill into law".

This was a clever way to start his political career as party leader. First of all, he made it clear that he will be supporting the government whenever he thought that this would be in the country's interest. He had already pointed out, during his leadership campaign, that he wanted an end to the 'Punch and Judy' style of British politics and wanted more consensus politics, which is definitely a sensible way forward.

Furthermore, the fact that Mr Cameron highlighted his party's support for the Education Bill - which is opposed by many Labour MPs - was also an intelligent way of highlighting the Labour government's divisions. The likelihood of Mr Blair having to rely on the Conservative Opposition to get his Education Bill through is highly embarrassing.

Mr Cameron's consensus politics is obviously very welcome but he will have to prove to the electorate that the party has really moved to the centre. Three top posts in his Shadow Cabinet have gone to right-wingers - former party leader William Hague is shadow foreign secretary and David Davis and Liam Fox, both of whom challenged Mr Cameron for the party leadership, are shadow home secretary and shadow defence secretary respectively. We will have to wait and see whether these three senior figures will be able to conform to Mr Cameron's centrist views.

Furthermore, it looks like - at least for now - the party will remain Eurosceptic. Mr Hague, Mr Fox and Mr David are all staunch Eurosceptics and Mr Cameron too is said to share such views. He has already pledged, for example, to withdraw the Conservatives' affiliation with the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) in the European Parliament because the EPP favours further European integration. I think this is a mistake but the decision is probably in tune with the wishes of the average Conservative voter.

Does Mr Cameron, who has only been an MP for just over four years, have what it takes to challenge Mr Blair and Mr Brown, both political giants? He did well during the leadership campaign and did not crumble when pressured by the tabloid press over drug allegations. He is also charismatic and a very good speaker. He performed very well at the recent party conference and during the PM's question time on Wednesday.

The fact remains, however, that he is somewhat inexperienced and will not have an easy job facing up to Mr Blair and his heir-apparent Mr Brown. Mr Blair had been an MP for 11 years when elected Labour Party leader and had no experience of government, but he soon turned out to be a first-class politician and statesman. Mr Cameron may well turn out to be a success story; we will just have to see how things develop.

I have no doubt that the Labour Party will do its best to exploit Mr Cameron's inexperience. On his part, Mr Cameron will have to take advantage of his young age and portray the Conservatives as the party of the future. During the PM's question time Mr Cameron said: "I want to talk about the future". Then, looking at Mr Blair, he remarked: "You were the future once."

I think it is fair to say that Mr Cameron recognises Mr Blair's great achievements and will not be focusing so much on attacking him. He knows that his opponent at the next election is going to be Mr Brown, so he will have to prepare himself for that. Mr Cameron also has to spell out how a Conservative government led by him will differ from a Labour government. There are many policy areas where Labour needs challenging, such as public services, crime and taxation, and where the Conservatives could take the lead if they really come up with credible alternatives.

Furthermore, Mr Cameron's fortunes will, to a great extent, depend on how Labour MPs behave in government. Mr Blair has already suffered one parliamentary defeat at the hands of his backbenchers. Should left-wing rebels vote against him over his plans for educational and health reform - even if the Conservatives come to the rescue - the government's authority would be further damaged, and voters do not like instability and open divisions in parties. The Conservatives would gain votes as a result.

A lot also depends on how much of an economic liberal Gordon Brown would be as Prime Minister. If he moves the party to the left to accommodate his rebel MPs this would certainly not be popular with floating voters or people who had switched support from Conservative to Labour.

On the whole I think it is correct to say that Mr Cameron's election shows that the Conservatives have understood the need to change - after three electoral defeats - and that the country as a whole will benefit from a strengthened Opposition.