Will he, won’t he? Labour don't doubt a win but it's all about the margin

As speculation over an early election intensifies, Mark Laurence Zammit explores whether it would benefit or harm Labour, though insiders agree the pressure may soon make a delay impossible.

Labour Party insiders do not seem concerned about losing the election, but they are running the numbers on the victory margin.

Ever since the party began its streak of landslide wins in 2013, simply winning an election does not seem enough for Labour. Political activists from both parties agree that the size of the majority has become the ultimate metric of success, or failure, for Labour.

Sources close to the government who spoke to Times of Malta on condition of anonymity this week said that for an early election to work in Robert Abela’s favour, he needs a landslide victory – one significant enough to calm down internal dissent and force critics to fall in line.

“There is internal dissent and disgruntlement, even if it doesn’t show on the outside,” one source said.

Furthermore, the margin must serve as a clear signal to the public that the Nationalist Party remains a distant and unviable alternative to govern.

“Abela must win without emerging weaker than he was four years ago,” one source said.

There is internal dissent and disgruntlement, even if it doesn’t show on the outside- Government source

“If he wins with a 20,000-vote margin, that’s a win, and not a small one, but not one that’s big enough to consolidate his power. He will have emerged weaker from a victory. He is definitely running these numbers in his head.”

Another source said Abela is enjoying a relatively comfortable time as prime minister at the moment. There are no major national or party crises, and it is widely regarded as a success by the majority of people, even a significant number of PN voters.

“It’s not ideal to risk it all now when he can drift relatively comfortably through another year,” the source said.

“But the temperature for an early election is so high now that I don’t even think he can avoid it at this stage. There’s so much momentum that if we stop now, it will be much harder to pick it up again after summer, and we risk burning out our activists, helpers and candidates.”

So, is an election in late May or June more likely to get Abela the result he needs? Insiders are divided on a number of factors.

A war in our midst

Most sources agreed that the instability brought about by the raging war tearing through the Middle East will likely nudge people to hold onto the government they know.

“People are more likely to rally behind the government that has protected them in similar situations,” one source said.

“They will cling to the more powerful party they feel can give them the security they need.

“The pandemic and the Ukraine war positioned Abela as a leader who can be trusted in times of trouble, and that reputation will continue to work in his favour for as long as he can cushion energy prices,” another source said.

“But that bubble could burst if the war problem grows bigger than the cushion solution, and he could lose that reputation faster than he earned it. Which is why it could help him to go to a vote now, when he has the situation under control.”

Some other insiders were not sure, however. An electoral campaign requires any party to pledge to spend millions in new projects and benefits – promises that might seem incredible in the context of a war that nobody knows when, or if, it will subside.

The Alex Borg factor

Labour insiders are also divided on whether PN leader Alex Borg will become stronger over time.

Some campaign insiders argue that striking now – while the 30-year-old fresh face is still finding his footing – is the strategic move. They fear that delaying the election only gives him more time to build momentum and chip away at the prime minister’s majority.

However, the prevailing sentiment within the party remains one of no concern. Most sources believe that if Borg has not made significant inroads by now, an extra year is unlikely to change the tide.

“Borg doesn’t have baggage, which works in his favour. But he doesn’t have a track record of running a country smoothly through a pandemic and a war either,” one source said.

Another prevailing sentiment among Labour supporters is: Why go to an early election when the government is doing well?

“We’re getting this a lot from our people,” one source said.

“They ask: ‘In 2022 we won the right to govern for five years and we shouldn’t feel the need to stop the term short. It’s our time and we deserve to get it to the full’.”

Cutting the term short also means less time to attend to disgruntled supporters’ “needs” and to finish or show significant advancements on long-overdue promises.

Infrastructure projects like the Ħal Far racetrack, for instance, require more time to yield visible results, making a later election date more advantageous for showcasing progress.

Positive polls

One other reason that might be nudging Abela to go to an early election is the polls.

Party insiders confirmed that internal polling is showing a consistent lead of between 27,000 and 30,000 votes for Labour and a Nationalist Party that is failing to gain any meaningful traction.

It seems a significant chunk of Labour supporters still will not rally behind Abela in the polls, but they are not shifting towards the PN either. And the closer the election gets, the margin of undecided voters will likely shrink, with most of them going back to Labour.

One source was blunt: “If a significant victory is guaranteed, we should go for an election now. We have no guarantee the political climate will remain this favourable in a year. Winning a fourth term is no easy feat. No government has ever done it before, so if we know we can break this record, we should go for it now.”