Heeding warning signs

Learning to listen to warning signs is a useful skill promoting human survival. A massive landslide into a dam in northern Italy was cited as a cautionary tale by Unesco in 2008, the International Year of the Planet.

Earth movements were noticed well before the disaster, but instead of heeding warning signs, the Italian government chose to sue the handful of journalists who had reported the problem, for "undermining social order".

The choice of the dam site had previously been criticised for its steep-sided and undercut banks pocked with caverns and slippery clay. All these factors pointed to certain failure of the slope's stability - but no one listened.

The day before the fatal landslide, the tree-covered mountainside moved an entire metre. Still no warnings were issued.

Then, on the night of October 9, 1963, the entire slope collapsed into the Vaiont Dam, forming a huge wave which swept over the dam, decimating villages below and claiming over 2,000 lives.

Fortunately, no such risk on this scale exists in Malta, although by their nature, most cliff faces are considered 'unstable'.

Replying to questions over rock fissures under investigation at Anchor Bay, Maltese geologist Peter Gatt points out that rock instability is intrinsic to cliff formation.

He views any possible hazards as depending on the rate of cliff retreat, whether the rate is fast in human terms (i.e. whether it occurs in tens or hundreds of years), and what land uses could be affected by cliff failure.

If the rate of cliff movement at Anchor Bay is not known this should be a cause for concern and would suggest the need for a professional assessment. Mr Gatt describes the methods used to determine the likelihood of failure in such cases as "complicated".

Newly-appointed Civil Protection Department head Patrick Murgo's point of view is that it is usually up to the police to cordon off any area considered to be unsafe. Following this they would conduct an assessment and then decide how to deal with the risk.

The Malta Tourism Authority, which appears to have a limited remit in the matter, has referred enquiries about the level of risk to the Ministry of Rural Affairs (despite MTA falling under the Office of the Prime Minister). Ministry official Oliver Lautier was to have despatched an architect to inspect the site last Tuesday.

Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes and tsunamis are generally not thought of as being related to climate change. Yet scientists are speculating about possible future geological hazards that could come about as a result of global warming.

"Climate change not only affects the atmosphere and oceans but the earth's crust as well.

"The whole earth is an interactive system," according to Prof. Bill McGuire of University College London.

The debate among scientists over how soon glaciers will melt has been blown out of proportion. It is no longer a question of 'if' but 'when'.

A cubic metre of ice weighs a tonne. Over millennia, the earth adjusted slowly to the immense weight of Antarctica's ice sheet, which is several miles thick. Now this weight is gradually lifting. When the load of pack ice is gone, the earth's crust is expected to bounce back, triggering earthquakes, submarine landslides and tsunamis in areas closest to the poles.

Canadian Newfoundland, across open water from Greenland, would be among areas facing the consequence of these 'low-probability but high risk' events at some point in the future.

In the southern latitudes, Chile and New Zealand are the countries most at risk.

Many climate change sceptics still view global warming as a lie concocted by unscrupulous politicians and scientists. Author Ben Bova says, "I can't vouch for the politicians, but I do not believe that scientists are lying to us." Involved for many years in science and technology, his science fiction novels treat the human race's expansion across the frontiers of space.

Climate scepticism appears to be a type of coping mechanism in itself. Despite overwhelming evidence, some people still refuse to accept the idea that the earth's climate is warming.

They especially don't want to believe that human actions are playing a part in rising temperatures.

Back in the 1930s, Albert Einstein's concept of relativity was branded by the Nazi government of Germany as 'Jewish physics'. The Nazis encouraged a group of scientists to produce a book titled One Hundred Scientists Against Einstein.

Einstein's response was that physics isn't a popularity contest and all it would take to disprove his work was one scientist with an experiment that proves relativity is wrong.