Roberta Metsola has a good chance of winning a second term as European Parliament president but could be sidelined in the larger political games being played in Brussels, according to two experts.

On Saturday, Metsola confirmed she would run for the post and planned to submit her nomination papers today. She told Times of Malta she has enough support from the EU’s political groups to seek a second term.

She was elected European Parliament (EP) president in a landslide victory in 2022, with her tenure set to expire now – at which point the prestigious post will be up for grabs.

With complex power games at play in the upper echelons of the EU and second terms in the role far from the norm, her future as EP president remains uncertain.

Metsola’s continued place in European politics was assured last weekend after she was re-elected to the European Parliament with more votes than any other MEP candidate in Malta’s history.

But with speculation rife about her continuing as EP president ahead of a European leaders’ meeting today to discuss the EU’s top jobs, Times of Malta set out to find out just how likely a scenario it was.

“Overall, she has a good chance of staying on,” said one informed source when asked how likely it was Metsola would remain in office for a second term.

Stressing she was credited with raising the profile of the position by “carving out a more important role for the presidency”, he said Metsola’s presence was “appreciated” by the European Parliament, which he said had grown stronger under her leadership.

However, with power dynamics between the European People’s Party (EPP) – of which Metsola is a member – the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew Europe at play, past success was not the only determining factor, the source said.

Horse-trading

Following the last round of European elections in 2019, the role of EP president was divided up between the EPP and S&D groups which, along with Renew, controlled a parliamentary majority in a ‘grand coalition’.

With Renew taking the post of European Council president for the last five years – a position that went to former Belgian prime minister Charles Michel – EPP and S&D split the post of EP president, with each occupying the role for one term of two-and-a-half years.

Overall, she has a good chance of staying on

But with Renew decimated in the recent elections, S&D remaining largely stable and the EPP seeing their share of seats increase according to the latest results, the balance of power has shifted.

“An important question is whether the liberals [Renew] will be able to justify holding on to a top job after not doing so well,” the source said, speculating that should the leadership of the European Council leave the hands of Renew, it could affect the balance of power for the EP president role.

“Metsola’s job might get caught up in a bigger game being played with the top jobs,” he said, a practice known as ‘horse-trading’.

He noted that prominent Renew figure and French President Emmanuel Macron “likes” Metsola, which could work in her favour. Macron’s influence could be waning however, after his party lost badly in the French MEP elections, prompting him to call a snap election.

The source added it was likely the EP groups would want to find people who “reflect the geographic balance,” noting that none of the top jobs had so far gone to someone from Eastern or Central Europe: “It’s very likely one of the top jobs will go to someone from the Baltic states.”

Abortion, Meloni and precedents

However, another source Times of Malta spoke to said that while the balance of power had shifted and horse-trading could play a part, it wasn’t guaranteed to be the deciding factor.

“It could happen, but MEPs vote on it [the EP president role]... it’s not just a question of ‘dividing up the cake’,” the EU source said.

The two sources also disagreed on the extent to which Metsola’s anti-abortion stance could affect her chances.

While the first said it could damage her chances at a second term, calling it “impressive” she had managed to gain the support of S&D the first time around despite being at odds with the group over the issue, the latter seemed less concerned: “It wasn’t an issue the first time; I don’t know why it would be now.”

Despite Metsola’s personal stance on abortion, she has vowed to follow the position taken by the European Parliament, which in April voted to include access to abortion in the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights.

The two also disagreed on the role of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has been viewed by some analysts as a ‘kingmaker’ after her Brothers of Italy party won big at home, swelling the ranks of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in Europe.

Could Meloni’s support prove to be important?

“It’s correct to say she’s a kingmaker; she has a good number of MEPs and is pragmatic at an EU level,” said the European source, adding she “hadn’t turned out to be the bogeyman everyone expected”.

But his counterpart said that while the Italian premier was in a “good position,” the dust was still settling and he “wouldn’t overstate her importance”.

However, the two agreed it would be “significant” if

Metsola was to win a second term, noting it was rare for a parliament president to retain the role for more than one term with only German Socialist Martin Schulz having  managed the feat.