If the political Carnival ever ends

Malta may not wake up with a new political party leader and prime minister-in-waiting today. Yet the sun will definitely rise on a set of old problems that the first two months of the year have seemed to become more intractable.

They scream out for new approaches.

Above all, they demand a new way of doing politics.

The latest indicator of Malta's old woes is the total of those registering for employment during January. Taking both Part 1 and Part 2 of the register, as the National Office of Statistics starts off by doing in its factual narrative, that total stood at 8,794 (of whom 6,942 were males, 1,852 females).

That aggregate was up 915 on January 2003.

Purists might quibble with that, saying that one should not put too much emphasis on Part 2 of the unemployment register. That includes workers who are defined as either having been dismissed due to disciplinary action, left work of their own free will, refused work or training opportunities, or were struck off after an inspection by the Law Enforcement Personnel.

Part 1 is more indicative of what is really happening, hold both purists as well as others who tend to sniff Serve-them-right at those on Part 2. Its definition incorporates new job seekers who have left school, re-entrants to the labour market, and job losers who have been made redundant by their former employers.

Go along with the purists and the sniffers, leave out the Part 2 registrants (733 in January) - and the picture actually grows darker.

Last month there were 8,061 on Part 1 - made up of 6,326 males and 1,699 females. That total is 974 higher that a year ago. Of considerable importance to those who wish to understand the significance of the composition of the jobless objectively in dry economic terms, apart from the deeply disturbing human aspect, is the fact that female unemployment rose by almost a third (to be exact, 31 per cent - from 1,300 to 1,699).

That strongly suggests, among other things, fewer factory, and similar opportunities.

Even when one attributes some seasonality to the January movements, the landscape looks bleaker rather than clearing up somewhat.

In January of last year there was a net increase over December of 303 jobless on the Part 1 register. The comparable figure this January was 567.

I would be not at all surprised if by now I have lost much more than a few of those who bother to start reading my column. So many figures do not quite fit in with leisurely Sunday reading.

As it is, though it would be proper to do so, I cannot test the fortitude of those who did bear with me so far with another very relevant figure - that for the labour supply in January.

The labour supply aggregate is made up of those registering for a job plus the far more numerous and happier ones who, whatever other good or not-so-good situations they have to deal with, are gainfully occupied.

To really understand the jobs position one has to take into account how many have income from regular gainful employment.

Apart from the sharp rise in part-time work that has been taking place in recent years, both where that is one's primary employment, as well as where it is one's second (maybe third as well) job, the total of those in full employment has gone up by some 3,000.

Though to claim that the government, whoever happened to form it, 'created' such jobs is to be silly beyond belief. It is important to take due note of jobs expansion.

One also has to observe and keep that in mind the changing sectoral composition of the jobs that make up the total, to see where growth is coming from, and which sectors may be declining.

To speak only of gloom simply dooms all of us more gravely than economic factors within (domestic) or beyond (global) our control may be doing.

Such an approach would be as foolish as that of those who trumpet the fact that more people are working than, say, the last time there was a different government (Labour, 1996-98).

To contribute to a serious understanding of what we want to try to do one should - in the first instance - set out the real figures. Then proceed to read them objectively.

That there are more people in employment than ever before, is a fact. Rising unemployment of a structural nature - rather people temporarily out of work, or what is termed frictional unemployment - is another observable fact.

A high level of unemployment is not some new phenomenon to the Maltese Islands. It is a very old problem well recorded in the psyche of our society, not least by the historical experiences of various rundowns of the UK military presence in Malta, before it was phased out on a planned basis in the Seventies.

That process was made possible by the fact that Malta had become an independent state. In the past local unemployment would be eased by mass emigration, which also took away some of the islands' more highly skilled human resources.

Then came the years of growth, in part fuelled by direct foreign and local investment, in other part by high private and government consumption.

The jobless situation eased. Now it is intensifying once more. Those registering for a job have been generally increasing for several months in absolute terms.

In statistical terms, the key rate is expressed as a percentage - if there are more unemployed but the number of those in a job grows at a faster rate, the percentage of the jobless is reined in.

That still leaves the analyst and the policymaker with the composition of the unemployed. In our case, that is another old, endemic problem. Most of the unemployed have low skills. Also, a high proportion of the registering jobless are long-term unemployed (on the register for a year or more).

Above all joblessness, whatever percentage it represents of the labour supply is a human tragedy for those able and willing to work, but who cannot find employment.

One need not be a cynic or hard-hearted to point out that the total of the jobless includes a proportion of moonlighters, people who are able but unwilling to work other than in the underground economy, where taxes are no more than a bad joke.

Allow for such an element. The jobs situation is still getting a great deal tighter and those who are losing and/or cannot find a job are getting more numerous.

It does not take the monthly statistics to reveal that brutal fact. One comes across evidence of this disquieting trend in all walks of daily life.

Without being unduly gloomy or talking in terms of crises rather than some capricious (domestic) and many more inescapable (due to factors abroad) situations that must be managed with sound policies, determination and aggressiveness, one cannot ignore the presence of other negatives.

Price inflation is picking up. The tourist sector is not undergoing fundamental restructuring as an industry in the context of the whole-of-Malta product (which is not to be mixed up with hotel sites being developed for residential and commercial purposes).

Competitiveness is melting away, even if one considers only the relentless pressure from lower cost locations.

Direct investment is nowhere near the pace to suggest that a net new 10,000 jobs of the right quality will be developed in the private sector over the next five years.

What else is old under Malta's sun? Quite a bit more, actually. But the point does not require further hammering to demonstrate that our islands need to enter an era of New Politics. Good politics does not ensure social and economic progresses.

Bad politics makes such progress harder to achieve.

Leaders come. And leaders go. The problems that remain embedded suggest more than ever that it is the people who need to speak out more about how they want to be led.

That must continue to include the clash and contrast of political ideas. But, surely, intended to produce democratic competition to do better, with sensible proposals.

Not to befuddle and mislead with the hollow promises and empty rhetoric that ring out from both sides of Malta's political stage.

Will our political carnival ever end and searing introspection begin?