Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's hard-right government on Tuesday suffered its first electoral setback since taking office, as the centre-left opposition gained a narrow victory in a regional vote in Sardinia.
Alessandra Todde, an MP from the once anti-establishment Five Star Movement who also had the backing of the centre-left Democratic Party, becomes the island's first woman president after winning Sunday's election.
She defeated Paolo Truzzu, a member of Meloni's far-right Brothers of Italy party who was chosen to represent the coalition government, according to near-final official results.
Her victory was only by a whisker - 45.4 percent of the vote against 45 percent for Truzzu - but is the first such defeat for Meloni since she took office in October 2022.
The vote marked a breakthrough for the two main opposition parties, which put aside their differences to field a joint candidate.
"Today we've shown that the right can be beaten," said Elly Schlein, leader of the Democratic Party.
Former premier Giuseppe Conte, leader of the Five Star Movement, added: "Sardinian citizens have closed the door on Meloni and company and opened it to the alternative. The air has changed."
Experts caution about reading too much into a regional vote heavily influenced by local factors, from healthcare to a corruption investigation against the right-wing incumbent.
Nationwide, Meloni's party has been leading opinion polls ever since her election.
The latest YouTrend collation of polls puts Brothers of Italy at 28 percent of support, compared to 19.6 percent for the Democratic Party and 16.2 percent for the Five Star Movement.
"Every regional election is regional, you shouldn't extrapolate too much," Daniele Albertazzi, a professor of politics and expert on populism at Britain's University of Surrey, told AFP.
But the vote underscored how "either the Democratic Party and Five Star find a way to win together, or it's very, very unlikely that either of them is able to prevail."
'Strategic mistake'
Meloni offered her congratulations to Todde, who served as a junior minister under Conte and under former premier Mario Draghi, and now takes the helm in Sardinia for five years.
"Defeats are always a disappointment, but also an opportunity to reflect and improve. We will also learn from this," Meloni wrote on X.
Truzzu, the mayor of Sardinia's capital Cagliari, took personal responsibility for his defeat, noting he failed even to take victory in his own city.
"The truth is that Meloni is not responsible. They were not national elections," the 51-year-old told reporters.
But Meloni had pressed hard for his nomination, and many commentators characterised it as her personal failure.
Her main coalition ally, Matteo Salvini of the far-right League, had wanted a new term for incumbent Christian Solinas, elected in 2019.
But Solinas withdrew his nomination just weeks before the vote after coming under investigation for corruption.
"Overall, Meloni has made few mistakes so far... but this will be used by Salvini to say that she is not invincible," said Albertazzi.
He said she was still on course to do well in European Parliament elections in June - but the setback may allow her allies to assert themselves, particularly in the choice of candidates for upcoming regional elections.
Albertazzi predicted no serious trouble from the League or her third coalition partner, the right-leaning Forza Italia, who are polling nationwide at 8.3% and 7.6%, according to YouTrend.
But after the defeat, they can "take back the covers on the bed a little", he said.