Ireland voted on Friday in a closely-fought general election as an exit poll showed the three main parties nearly deadlocked ahead of the start of the official count.

Voters chose a new 174-seat lower chamber of parliament, the Dail with a housing crisis dominating the campaign.

According to one exit poll, the pro-Irish unity Sinn Fein party had 21.1 percent of the vote, neck-and-neck with the centre-right Fine Gael led by outgoing prime minister Simon Harris at 21.0 percent. 

Fine Gael's centre-right partner in the outgoing coalition—Fianna Fail, led by deputy prime minister Micheal Martin—was third with 19.5 percent.

Counting will start Saturday at 0900GMT, with partial results expected through the day.

A final result, however, may take days as Ireland's proportional representation system sees votes of eliminated candidates redistributed during multiple rounds of counting.

Fine Gael -- in office since 2011 -- shared power with Fianna Fail in the last parliament, and the role of prime minister rotated between the two leaders.

"The exit poll makes it most likely that Fine Gael and Fianna Fail government will continue," Eoin O'Malley, a political scientist at Dublin City University, told AFP.

The poll showed there is "no enthusiasm for the government, despite a buoyant economy, but neither is there any enthusiasm for the opposition parties," he added.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fail "will need a few parties to help them get there," he said.

Non-aligned independent candidates could play a role in the next government if sought by the frontrunner parties to make up an 88-seat majority in the Dail.

Status quo?

The three-week campaign was marked by rancour over housing and cost-of-living crises, public spending and immigration. 

"I've enjoyed putting forward my policy vision as a new leader, as a new taoiseach (prime minister)," Harris, 38, told reporters after voting.

Harris became Ireland's youngest government leader when he took over in April and held a solid lead entering the campaign.

But the party lost ground, in particular after Harris was seen in a viral clip appearing rude to a care worker on the campaign trail.

Some in his home constituency told AFP that they preferred the incumbent government to remain in power, but with little enthusiasm. 

While leaning towards the coalition, IT worker Kevin Barry, 41, told AFP: "I am not really happy with them as they are responsible for the mess that we are in, particularly with regard to the housing crisis."

Last month, the government's budget announcement aimed to appease voters fretting about sky-high housing and childcare costs.

For Peta Scott, 54, a healthcare worker and mother of four, housing woes meant it was "a challenge" for her children to stay in Ireland.

At the last general election in 2020, Sinn Fein -- the former political wing of the paramilitary Irish Republican Army -- topped the popular vote but could not find willing coalition partners.

That led to weeks of negotiations, ending with the Fine Gael-Fianna Fail deal. The smaller Green Party also joined the coalition.

Time for change?

Both centre-right parties stressed their pro-business credentials and said returning them to power would ensure stability, particularly with turmoil abroad and the risk of external shocks.

Ireland's economy depends on foreign direct investment and lavish corporate tax returns from mainly US tech and pharma giants. 

But threats from incoming US president Donald Trump to slap tariffs on imports and repatriate the corporate tax of US firms from countries such as Ireland have caused concern.

Mary Lou McDonald's Sinn Fein saw support fall in the past year because of its progressive stance on social issues and migration policy.

But it rallied on the back of a campaign heavily focused on housing and claims it is the only alternative to the traditional parties, who have swapped power since Irish independence from Britain in 1921.

After voting in her central Dublin constituency, McDonald, 55, called Friday "a historic day where we can elect a new government for change".

Retiree William McCarthy voted for the party but was unconvinced they would win. 

Physiotherapist Jenny Foley, 28, voted for the smaller centre-left Social Democrats because of their immigration policy and pro-choice stance. Abortion was legalised in Ireland in 2018.

"I am really interested in candidates who are not on the side of closing Ireland's borders. I'm really not a fan of all of that," she added, referring to immigration.

 

 

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