Is it the end of the two-party system?

Alternativa Demokratika's relative success in the recent election for the European Parliament has led some to tout that this result heralds the end of the two-party system - this apart from what the AD party machinery (i.e. Harry Vassallo and Arnold Cassola) believe.

Writing in The Malta Independent on Sunday last week, Noel Grima claimed that "the long history of Maltese politics has been one of a plurality of parties. Having two parties, battling it out at each other and at every juncture, was an exception and not the rule."

Taking the post-World War II scenario and considering Maltese elections from 1947 to date, this is hardly correct. The late Forties and early Fifties were characterised by a multi-party system that practically made the country ungovernable. Looking back at the first half of the Fifties, there were a number of parties represented in the then Legislative Assembly, but the political scene was characterised by a series of unstable governments and elections every 15 months or so.

This nonsense stopped in the 1955 elections when the people practically opted for one of two parties, with only the MLP and the PN garnering any seats in the Legislative Assembly. Following the shambles of the 1958-1962 period, five parties ended up with members in the House of Representatives elected in 1962 - but of the three smaller parties two were actually splinter groups, one each from the MLP and the PN. The two-party system was 'restored' in the 1966 election and this has been the Maltese political scenario ever since.

There is no doubt, therefore, that in the post-war period "having two parties battling it out at each other" was what was happening in at least 38 out of 57 years. The exception had, indeed, become the rule.

At the end of the day, we owe Malta's political stability and governability to our two-party 'system', or better still arrangement; this in spite of the obvious inherent disadvantages.

A sober assessment on whether the EP election two weeks ago have heralded the end of the two-party system can only be made if one understands the motives and the circumstances that led to so many voters abandoning the PN and voting AD or refraining from voting at all. It is a fact that a number of MLP voters also refrained from casting their vote, but the level of 'desertion' - for want of a more suitable word - was much higher among those who normally vote PN.

It is obvious that many who voted for AD's only candidate know what they voted against, more than what they voted for. There is nothing strange in this - it happened in all the 25 member states of the EU. The nature of the elections for the European Parliament is such that it tempts people to use them as a means for expressing their disagreement with what is happening around them.

I am sure that the number of people who voted AD fully knowing what it stands for and in full agreement with what it really stands for on a European level must be a very small minority. At the same time, attempts to 'explain' voting patterns as if this were a single-issue election - e.g. the hunting issue - are too simplistic to be realistic.

At the end of the day the question whether the two-party system has been 'demolished' or not boils down to the question as to whether in the 2008 general election AD can achieve or better the level of support it got on June 12, 2004.

Considering what happened in the UK as an interesting parallel with what happened in Malta, will the UK Independence Party get the same level of support it got in the EP elections in the next general election? Will Tony Blair get the same drubbing his Labour Party got at the polls in the EP election? Hardly likely!

One interesting aspect in all this could be the fact that because of our two-party system, many in Malta feel they have no real choice in the general election. They have to vote PN, or else... The June 12 election gave them the chance not to be tied down with the two way option - hence the result. In other circumstances, they will not have the luxury to do the same...

This is not to say that many of the factors that bothered the electorate so much that it felt the need to protest are not serious, or that the current PN administration does not need to get the message and act in the strongest manner possible to address these issues. This is so obvious that it practically goes without saying.

Yet, it does seem to me that the June 12 election result that is being touted as the 'demolition' of the two-party system will, ironically, end up reinforcing the system: it's either blue or red.

Time, of course, will settle the issue. And in the time that there's left till the next election in 2008 so many unforeseen things can happen that these thoughts could, after all, turn out to be completely irrelevant.