Israel's gamble in Gaza

Israel's attacks on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, the biggest military operation against Gaza since the 1967 war, represent a dangerous gamble by the Jewish state and have led to renewed tension in the Middle East.

The war has further radicalised Muslim and Arab public opinion against Israel, the US and moderate Arab countries and has increased the pressure on the Palestinian National Authority led by the secular Fatah movement to adopt a confrontational approach towards Israel.

The resumption of fighting between Hamas and Israel is not surprising. Israel says it wants to stop the Hamas rocket attacks against its citizens and the smuggling of weapons into Gaza from Egypt, while Hamas says any ceasefire must include an end to Israel's blockade of Gaza.

While I feel that Israel's response to the Hamas rocket attacks is disproportionate - it has led to the deaths of hundreds of innocent Palestinian civilians - besides reducing the living conditions of the population to deplorable levels - Hamas must also assume its responsibility for this crisis.

Did Hamas really believe the Israelis would do nothing as it fired its rockets at them a couple of months before voting in a general election?

The electoral factor cannot be overlooked. The two main Israeli protagonists in this war, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, leader of the Kadima Party, and Defence Minister Ehud Barak, leader of the Labour Party, are trying to outdo each other in hawkishness to emerge stronger after February's election and claim top prize, that of Prime Minister. They don't want to look weak and allow Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the opposition Likud Party, to gain any electoral advantage.

There is little doubt that Hamas believes it could emulate Hizbollah's 'victory' in southern Lebanon in 2006 when the Shi'ite group successfully withstood an Israeli attack in response to its firing of rockets into Israel. Lebanon suffered tremendously but Hizbollah was not destroyed. The rocket attacks on Israel continued throughout the war, the radical Islamic Shi'ite movement scored a massive propaganda victory over Israel and its leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, became a hero to the Arab masses.

Although Israel has taken a huge risk by bombing Gaza and sending in ground troops - it could well get bogged down there and locating and destroying all of Hamas' rockets may prove impossible - Hamas is militarily not as strong as Hizbollah and its network has been heavily hit by the Israeli military strikes.

However, should Hizbollah open a second front against Israel from Lebanon, then that would represent a very dangerous escalation of the war. Last week, in fact, rockets were fired into northern Israel from Lebanon, but it is believed that the attacks were carried out by one of the armed Palestinian groups that operate in Lebanon and not Hizbollah.

Although Hamas' electoral victory three years ago was a major setback to the Middle East peace process, it has to be acknowledged that Hamas won the elections because Palestinians were fed up with Fatah's inability to stop the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and the lack of progress over the creation of a Palestinian state. There were also many allegations of corruption among Fatah circles.

Since Fatah and Hamas quarrelled 18 months ago - leading to Hamas' control of Gaza and Fatah's control of the West Bank - Israel has sought to isolate Hamas by imposing a blockade on the 1.5 million Gazans, with food, medicine and fuel being rationed.

Furthermore, the US and the EU have no direct links to Hamas. Unfortunately, whether we like it or not, Hamas is now part of the equation in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute and cannot be ignored. It was the Israeli occupation, after all, which created the conditions for an organisation such as Hamas, with its generous welfare programmes, to thrive.

There are certainly no easy solutions to the dispute, especially since Hamas will be looking for a psychological victory and Israel probably wants to prove that its policy of deterrence, which took a battering in the 2006 war in Lebanon, is still valid. The diplomatic efforts undertaken by Egypt, France and the European Union to end this war are to be welcomed, but the absence of any genuine US effort at solving this crisis - the outgoing lame duck Bush presidency has not shown any interest in working towards a diplomatic solution - has certainly been felt.

Let us hope that the incoming Obama administration will give the Israeli-Palestinian dispute the importance it deserves and will work hard towards reaching a two-state solution.

What is needed as soon as possible, however, is an internationally monitored ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and the lifting of the blockade of Gaza by Israel. Furthermore, a rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas, with the possibility of new Palestinian elections in the near future, will also be helpful.