There will be no sexy preamble this week.
I can sense the anticipation in the air, so I’m going to jump straight in and give you my predictions for the top 10 slots in this season’s English Premier League.
Just for the record, though, this article was put together before the first round of games, so it is in no way influenced by what happened last weekend. Which, looking back at one or two of those results, is probably going to make me look a bit stupid. But nothing new there really...
10th: Fulham
I enjoyed watching Fulham play last season. They were pacy and entertaining in a carefree, unhindered-by-any-major-ambition sort of way. While their pre-season doesn’t suggest they have regressed, neither has it done anything to make me feel they have taken a step up. So I am going for the highly unlikely outcome of them finishing in exactly the same place. Sort of a Groundhog Day at Craven Cottage, which is, while we are on the topic, probably my favourite Premier League ground of them all.
9th: Brighton & Hove Albion
The rest of the world seems to think the sun shines out of Roberto de Zerbi’s bottom, and I get a wave of abuse whenever I question that solar hypothesis. But I still have my reservations. With key players sold and his own replacements in place, this season will be when we get a better understanding of his talents. Their European adventure is also likely to have a bearing on their domestic form, but that’s the price of success, which I suspect their fans are more than happy to pay.
8th: Tottenham Hotspur
Contrary to popular opinion, I think Spurs will be better off without Harry Kane in the long term. The club has spent years relying on him to single-handedly drag them out of mediocrity and that will have to stop. From now on, they will need to be an actual team, rather than a support network for a very talented striker. The club has already made a couple of decent signings in and, provided they spend the Kane money wisely, could be a refreshed and revitalised beast moving forward. But it will take this season for the reset to take hold.
7th: Aston Villa
While everybody was busy signing up for lifetime memberships of the de Zerbi fan club last season, the number of experts who were as complimentary about the work Unai Emery was doing at Villa was miniscule in comparison. When he took over, they were at the wrong end of the table, but he turned it round dramatically and guided them to a seventh-placed finish. I can’t see them doing any better this season, but over the next few years the man who only comes into his own at clubs with ‘villa’ in their name (Sevilla, Villareal…), could potentially help the former European champions return to their glory days.
6th: Newcastle United
Despite their new-found Saudi wealth, I don’t think anyone expected Newcastle’s results to improve so dramatically, so quickly. In fact, I would go as far as to say their Champions League qualification actually came slightly too soon for a club that is still coming to terms with its status as one of the world’s richest clubs. Whether Eddie Howe likes it or not, his young squad will have to deal with something previously alien to them: expectation. That, combined with the drain of facing Europe’s finest on a regular basis, will see them dip a little this season. But it is likely to be only a temporary blip on their trajectory to the very top.
It’s going to take Pochettino half a season just to meet all the players on the books
5th: Chelsea
Other than relegation, it’s hard to see how Chelsea could have had a less successful season than last. It really was a slow-motion car crash of a campaign that involved a hat-trick of managers and a total points tally that was less than the number of players they signed. Mauricio Pochettino knows his way around the Premier League and can handle big-name players, which makes him a good fit for the job. Although he was probably engaged with a top-four position as his minimum target, I don’t believe they will make it. It’s going to take Pochettino half a season just to meet all the players on the books.
4th: Liverpool
I’m not sure what to make of Liverpool anymore. There are moments when you think Jürgen Klopp might be pushed, others when you think he might jump, but many more where you feel the bond between him and the club is almost unbreakable.
Liverpool have made some canny signings over the summer and most of the players who have departed were ready for replacing anyway. But the humiliating way they lost out to Chelsea on the ridiculously overpriced Moisés Caicedo is going to sting, especially as a defensive midfielder is what they lack the most. I think scraping into the top four is their current limit, with a side order of a European trophy maybe.
The Top Three...
The more observant among you will have realised there are three teams I haven’t mentioned so far – Arsenal, Man City and Man United.
Having Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta’s sides in this shortlist is entirely uncontroversial. The inclusion of United, however, is possibly a little more unexpected. Yet I am of the humble opinion that they will be involved in a three-horse title race.
Despite the Old Trafford takeover dragging on forever, Erik ten Hag has still made a few decent moves in the transfer market. Not as many as he would have liked probably, but André Onana is an all-action keeper and Mason Mount can be brilliant when he is on form. If you went down the flea market to try and buy Erling Haaland, you would probably come back with Rasmus Højlund. But while he may look and sound like an unbranded, knocked-off version of the world’s deadliest striker, the kid is very talented and could be crucial to United’s season when he gets fit.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have added some steel and flair to an already good side that just ran out of steam at the end of last season. As expensive (and overpriced in my opinion) as Declan Rice was, he could very well be the missing piece of Mikel’s jigsaw. Defensively they are reasonably solid, and up front they can be devastating, with an array of attacking talent that is, arguably, as good as Man City’s, if not better. But the midfield was not as composed as it should have been in key moments last season. With Rice soaking up the pressure, they will be more resilient when they need to be.
City, of course, remain the favourites, and I understand why just about every expert and pundit is putting their money on them to win yet another title. You may think they have been weakened by departures, but Guardiola always makes sure he has backup waiting. And, if he doesn’t, he buys it. Many years ago I expressed a multitude of doubts about whether Pep was actually as good as people suggested, with his career being a stage-managed procession of teams that couldn’t fail to win. But his consistency of success must surely make him the one of the best, if not the best, managers ever. And that is why it’s hard not to predict him winning his sixth Premier League title.
But hey, life is hard. And that’s why I am going with this as my top three:
3rd: Manchester United
2nd: Manchester City
1st: Arsenal
There you go. That should put the cat among the pigeons.
Final thoughts
Although I had to focus on the promised predictions, it would be utterly irresponsible of me not to bring up the tiny matter that England happen to be playing in a World Cup Final today!
Sorry, got a little overexcited there. But after 51 years of living in hope rather than expectation of ever seeing this happen, it’s quite overwhelming.
It may be the Three Lionesses taking on Spain in today’s final rather than the Three Lions but I’m not letting that minor gender technicality dampen my enthusiasm.
Because whether male genitalia are involved or not is irrelevant when it comes to finally getting to see the country you support in a full-on World Cup final.
So, am I predicting an England win?
Not even going there...
E-mail: james@quizando.com
Twitter: @maltablade