Labour has a 10.4 percentage-point lead in the race for next week’s European Parliament election, marginally increasing the gap between Malta’s two main parties over the past month, a new Times of Malta poll reveals.
The gap now stands at 10.4%, slightly higher than the 10.2% recorded in a similar poll in April.
The current expected turnout is 72.4%, which would translate to a difference of some 30,500 votes, although this number could change if the eventual turnout is higher or lower. This gap stood at 28,000 votes in April, when the predicted turnout was at 68%.
Notably, the bulk of people who plan to stay away from the voting booth are found in Labour-leaning regions. This could indicate that the gap between the two parties could increase if Labour manages to mobilise reluctant voters in these areas.
Nevertheless, it appears unlikely that this will translate into a fourth MEP seat for Labour, as was the case in 2019 when the gap topped the 42,000 vote mark.
PN share down, PL stays put
The findings suggest that while turnout is on the rise, PN is failing to capture any of these new voters, with its share of the overall vote having dipped slightly from 40.7% to 40.4% over the past month.
PL has also not made any gains, seeing its share of the vote stay put at 50.8% over the past month, although it has dipped from a high of just over 52% back in March.
On the other hand, things are looking up for independent candidates and third parties, who have seen their share of the vote grow slightly from 8.5% in April to 8.8% today.
If none of the independent and third-party candidates were to be elected, inherited votes could fall to either of the two main parties, with the gap between them likely to increase further.
The poll, carried out by market research firm Esprimi, gathered responses from 650 people aged 16 and over between May 22 and May 30, in the midst of the political drama surrounding the arraignment of former Prime Minister Joseph Muscat and several former and current cabinet members and government officials.
The survey uses machine learning to predict how undecided respondents will likely vote – a technique that managed to predict the 2022 election result with almost pinpoint accuracy.
The findings suggest that the momentous events of the past week have had almost no impact on the public’s voting intentions.
PL winning over non-voters, PN holding on to more of its previous voters
The poll suggests that Labour is doing a better job at winning back people who didn’t vote in the 2022 general election, with almost 12% of them saying that they now plan to vote PL, compared to the just over 6% who say that they will cast their vote for PN.
One in ten say that they will be supporting an independent candidate, while 6% will opt for Imperium Europa and just over 2% for ADPD. Over a third, 38%, say they will stick to their previous decision and once again stay home on polling day.
Although PL is successfully winning over non-voters from 2022, it is having a tougher time holding on to the ones who did vote for the party last election.
A tenth of them say they won’t vote at all this time around, with a further 12% saying they are still on the fence. Just over two thirds (68%) plan to once again vote for PL, with a handful of voters saying they will defect to either independent candidates (4%), PN (3.7%) or Imperium Europa (1.5%).
PN voters from 2022 appear to be more faithful to their party, with over three quarters of them (76%) saying that they will once again vote blue this time around and virtually none of them defecting to Labour.
Nevertheless, some 6% say they plan to support independent candidates, with a further 2% each opting for ADPD and Imperium Europa.
PL stronger across all age groups, parties split lead across regions
PL remains the most popular party across all age groups. While it holds a slight lead over PN in most age groups, voters between the ages of 25 to 34 and those over 65 are twice as likely to support PL.
PN performs particularly poorly with the 25-34 age group, with only 12% saying they support the party, fewer than those who say they won’t vote at all.
The survey suggests that independent candidates are gaining similar levels of support across voters of all ages, except those over the age of 65, who insist that they will vote for either of the two main parties.
ADPD, on the other hand, registers solid support among young voters under the age of 24, but sees its support plummet with older voters.
Things are a little more balanced when it comes to voters across Malta’s different regions, with the two main parties splitting the lead at three regions apiece.
PN holds on to its slight leads in Gozo (26% to PL’s 24%) and the northern harbour area (27% to PL’s 23%), and holds a commanding 14 point lead in the north of the country.
But PL holds even stronger leads in the remaining three regions, leading by 28 points in the both the south east and the southern harbour regions, and by 20 points in the west.
Gap would shrink for a general election
The gap between the two parties would shrink from just over 10% to 7% if a general election, rather than European election were to be held tomorrow, the poll suggests.
This means that Labour would win a general election by some 21,500 votes, garnering just under 52% of the vote, compared to PN’s 45%.
These figures remain virtually unchanged over the past month, with neither party making any significant gains or losses. Nonetheless, these percentages would likely change once a general election got closer.