The Labour Party has a 28,000 vote lead in the race for June's MEP elections, but this gap has narrowed by almost 6,000 votes over the past month, a Times of Malta survey shows.
The results reveal that just under 51% of voters are expected to vote for PL in June, a drop of 1.6 percentage points since a similar survey carried out in March.
Meanwhile, PN has managed to claw back some of its voters as it hopes to regain the third MEP seat it lost in 2019, seeing its share of the vote rise by 1.4 percentage points to just under 41% of the total vote.
This means that the difference between the two parties currently stands at 10.2%, or roughly 28,000 votes. This is almost 3% less than it was a month ago, when the two parties were separated by a margin of 33,800 votes.
Almost a third of the entire voting bloc appears to still be in play, with almost 32% of the electorate currently predicted not to vote. This has dropped by 1.2 percentage points over the past month and likely to drop further as voting day approaches.
The poll, carried out by market research firm Esprimi, gathered responses from 600 people aged 16 and over between April 1 and April 13. The survey uses machine learning to predict how undecided respondents will likely vote – a technique that managed to predict the 2022 election result almost to a tee.
PL struggling to hold on to voters, but few switching to PN
PN appears to be doing a better job at retaining voters who voted for the party during the 2022 general election, with 71% of PN voters two years ago saying they will vote for the party again in June.
However, one in five 2022 PN voters remain undecided, with a further 3% planning to skip the vote altogether. A handful of others say they will switch to a third party, including ADPD (2%), Imperium Europa (just over 1%), or other small parties or independent candidates (under 1%).
On the other hand, over a third of those who voted for PL in 2022 are expected to either abstain or switch party, with only 63% saying that they will vote for Labour again.
In fact, over one in 10 PL voters in 2022 say they will abstain, with a further 18% saying they are still undecided.
However, at just 2.5%, very few say they will make the switch to PN.
A third of people who did not vote in 2022 say they will stay home again this June, although 41% say they are still making their mind up.
Of those who have made their mind up, almost twice as many say they will vote for PN compared to PL (12% compared to 7%), while 4% say they will vote for independent candidates. Small parties appear to be making little headway with these voters.
PL holds on to lead amongst most regions and demographics
Despite a shrinking voting base, PL remains the most popular party in virtually all regions of Malta, as well as across all age groups.
While PN has a slim lead in Malta’s northern district, which includes the towns of San Ġwann, Naxxar, St Paul’s Bay and Mellieħa, PL leads across all other districts.
However, PL has registered sharp drops in Gozo (losing 10 percentage points) and the northern harbour (down 8 percentage points) over the past month.
Meanwhile, PL remains ahead among voters of all ages, except those between the ages of 55 and 64, where it has been pipped to the post by PN.
However, it retains a healthy lead among youths, with PN dropping its share of the youth vote by 7 percentage points over the past month.
PN narrows gap for general election
The poll also predicts that the gap between the two parties would narrow further if a general election were to be held tomorrow.
While the gap for the MEP election stands at 28,000 votes, this would dip to 21,000 votes in the case of a general election.
Much of this would be down to sharp drop in abstentions, with the rate of non-voters expected to dip to 19%, far lower than the 32% predicted for the MEP elections.
The poll predicts that most of these new voters would be mobilised to vote for PN in a general election, with the party set to gain 44.6% of all votes, almost 4 percentage points more than what is currently predicted for the MEP election.
PL would also make some gains, albeit at a lesser rate, with its share of the vote rising to 51.8%.
In the 2022 general election, Labour won by a majority of 39,474 votes over the PN.