The Labour Party is heading for a landslide victory in next month's European Parliament election and may even secure four out of Malta's six seats should the Lisbon Treaty come into force, according to the latest party polls. Labour is expected to make considerable gains, from 48.4 per cent in 2004 to 56 or even 57 per cent this time round.
The Nationalist Party, meanwhile, is not expected to improve upon the 40 per cent it achieved in 2004, according to polls commissioned by the two parties seen by The Sunday Times.
The figures are based on voters who have made their voting intentions known (around 70 per cent of respondents).
If the predictions translate into results, the PL will retain its three MEP seats and could add a fourth if the Lisbon Treaty comes into effect.
The polls also indicate that small parties, including Alternattiva Demokratika, which is expected to lose half its 9.3 per cent share in 2004, will fare badly in the June 6 election.
The 82 per cent turnout in the 2004 election is also likely to drop - by as much as 10 per cent - since many voters, particularly from traditional Nationalist areas, said they would be staying at home on polling day. Many said they felt the election was not important or else wanted to send a message to the government.
However, despite the encouraging signs, Labour leader Joseph Muscat has been playing down expectations, saying the second European elections would be tough for his party.
According to both the PN and PL weekly surveys, Nationalist MEP Simon Busuttil is by far the most popular candidate. However, although he is expected to be elected first, the lower turnout means he is unlikely to secure the 58,000 votes he gained in 2004.
The polls show there are three candidates in the running for second place under the PN umbrella. These are incumbent David Casa - who is favourite - Vince Farrugia and second-time candidate Roberta Metsola Tedesco Triccas.
On the PL side, things appear to be more balanced, although the polls show that new candidate Edward Scicluna has a clear advantage over the other 11 Labour candidates.
John Attard Montalto, Glenn Bedingfield, Joseph Cuschieri and Louis Grech are the main contenders for the €7,000 monthly EP salary.
However, the PL polls indicate that despite his record as an MEP, Mr Grech is in danger of losing his seat to Dr Attard Montalto, Mr Bedingfield or Mr Cuschieri.