The Russian foreign minister’s controversial speech at a meeting in Malta last Thursday was described by diplomatic sources as “posturing” against a backdrop of unease among the Russian delegation.
Sergey Lavrov made international headlines when he used his appearance at the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council in Ta’ Qali to launch into a tirade of anti-West rhetoric, as he faced condemnation and walkouts because of the Ukraine war.
Warning of a reincarnated Cold War – but one with the potential to turn “hot” – Russia’s top diplomat accused Western countries of wanting to “keep Russia down” as part of an attempt to “drive neo-colonial hegemony at any cost”.
But according to diplomatic sources present for the event, Lavrov’s speech could have been more for the sake of appearances, with one insider describing his speech as “posturing” despite its “unacceptable” content.
“There was a lot of posturing there; they do have the upper hand militarily but when you speak to their diplomats, you can feel they are not comfortable with the situation,” the source said.
Last month, Ukraine faced its worst results on the battlefield, losing an area of land equivalent to New York City, according to the Guardian citing Institute for the Study of War (ISW) figures.
In Donetsk – a major industrial city – alone, Ukraine lost more than 1,000 square kilometres, equivalent to an area almost three times the size of Malta.
And with the impending presidency of Donald Trump, who has signalled his intention to rein in US aid for Ukraine, the tides of war appear to be swinging in Russia’s favour.
“They have made some territorial gains, but they [the Russians] still want talks to start as soon as possible; they want peace too,” the source said – while acknowledging the Russians had a “different outlook” on what peace might look like, however.
They know this war will not be won totally, and they do feel isolated – even personally; people simply will not speak to them- Source
'They feel isolated'
Asked why the Russians might feel uncomfortable despite being in a strong position, the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, indicated there was a realisation they will not achieve all of their aims.
“They know this war will not be won totally, and they do feel isolated – even personally; people simply will not speak to them,” the source said.
They explained the Russian delegation also seemed uncomfortable with losing their leadership position at the OSCE, an organisation they see as their “brainchild” with its inception taking place amid the tensions of the Cold War.
The OSCE – originally the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe – was formed in 1970 as a multilateral forum between East and West as tensions with the former Soviet Union began to ease.
I don’t think he totally agrees with his leader
Asked about Lavrov’s hasty departure from the council meeting on Thursday, the source indicated health reasons could have been partly to blame, noting members of his delegation had said the diplomat was “feverish”.
“He came because he attaches a lot of importance to the OSCE,” the source said, describing him more of a career diplomat than a Putin fanatic: “I don’t think he totally agrees with his leader.”
Cigarette breaks
Another source told Times of Malta that while most EU foreign leaders eschewed meetings with Russia in Malta, some had found “creative ways” to open discussions.
This week, only Hungary and Slovakia – both with governments seen as sympathetic to Russia – held side discussions with the Russian delegation.
The insider said that while Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg held no official meetings with Russia’s top diplomat, it was an “open secret” in diplomatic circles that the two find an opportunity to smoke a cigarette near each other at such conferences.
“One can always find creative ways to talk,” the source said, indicating unofficial discussions were held during such encounters.
The source recalled that with Ukraine on the agenda at the informal dinner on Thursday evening, the delegations from neither Russia nor Belarus were in attendance.
With the war not on the agenda at the formal lunch earlier that day, however, it was Ukraine that did not attend.
Nonetheless, discussions had invariably turned to Russia’s invasion of the country, the source said, noting Lavrov had been forced to “listen to some very strong remarks” on the topic.
Asked for the Russian diplomat’s reaction to the comments, the source said Lavrov had not responded, with his thoughts on the matter difficult to gauge: “It’s difficult to read him.”
Ultimately, another diplomatic source pointed out, “It’s a game of wait and see. The new Trump administration is widely expected to stop giving major support to Ukraine, which would possibly mean the warring sides will have no choice but to meet around a table. It’s anyone’s guess what will happen next, but the Malta meeting was productive.”