Joseph Muscat has been the leader of the Labour Party for 11 years and Malta’s Prime Minister for over six. As prime minister, he has transformed the country into the economic tiger of the Mediterranean, bringing widespread prosperity to its citizens.

The outcome of European and local council elections last May provided a powerful vote of confidence in a government enjoying an unassailable lead, with an Opposition in turmoil after being reduced to its lowest electoral support since 1951.

Building on economic success, the Labour government’s achievements – warts and all – have stemmed from its lack of complacency, its energy, drive and ‘can-do’ attitude. It has been helped by Muscat’s ability to respond to criticism and, importantly, a remarkable knack for reading the public mood.

But his declaration that he will remain Prime Minister for only two terms is now coming back to haunt him.

Rather like Tony Blair – to whom he bears an uncanny political resemblance in the way they both forged a clean break with a number of Labour orthodoxies after years in opposition – he finds himself in danger of becoming a lame-duck prime minister. In the middle of his final term, Blair found his grip on the party and the electorate weakening.

Spotting the danger, Muscat has belatedly taken steps to quell succession fever in the PL. He has apparently made it plain in a meeting of the party executive that he has no intention of standing down “any time soon”. Speculation that he was using the forthcoming Budget as a platform to announce his departure has been strongly denied. The campaigning for the leadership, which had already begun, has been stifled – for the present.

The problem is that the genie is out of the bottle. Leadership contests inevitably undermine the party’s unity. No political party can withstand a two- or three-year leadership race without damaging consequences. Muscat has not apparently discussed a possible departure date with his Cabinet colleagues. But it cannot be put off much longer without his political capital as Prime Minister being depleted.

The tumult of the last two years in the Nationalist Party should stand as a stark reminder of what can go wrong. It stems directly from the party’s failure to plan properly for the post-Fenech Adami glory years of successful government – which ended in 2004. The failure to execute and manage effective succession planning had disastrous consequences, with the result that a party with a massive following imploded and in-fighting flared up in the subsequent jostling for power.

The increasingly presidential character of modern Maltese politics and the advent of social media and marketing techniques have turned our leaders into political prize-fighters

The Prime Minister will want toavoid that happening to his party, or to risk his government losing its sense of direction. How?

Succession planning is as key to the long-term health of an organisation in politics as it is in business. For many political parties it is seldom a smooth ride when a new leader takes over. Proper succession planning that nurtures existing leadership talent within a party curtails the blood-letting often characterising changes in political leadership.

Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founding father, prided himself on clear succession plans, even going so far as to usher out his first generation of ministers to make way for new blood. His oldest son, Lee Hsien Loong, the present Prime Minister, has indicated a desire to step down after legislative elections in 2021. He is already focussing on the timeline for the succession.

Given the mixed messages from Muscat, what are the factors that should influence his decision about when to hand over to his successor?

First, given his declared intention to step down at some point of his own choosing, the issue becomes one only of timing. But timing in politics is everything.

The overriding objective should be that Muscat times his departure to give his successor the greatest chance of stability and success, whether he leaves before or after the next general election. At the latest, this must be held by mid-2022, about 30 months hence.

In an ideal world, Muscat should stay on as Prime Minister until after the election in 2022, having – on current indications given his massive lead in the polls – led his party to a third election victory.

A new Labour Prime Minister, chosen from an excellent crop of current candidates, would then start with a clean sheet untrammelled by the pressure of having to win a general election to keep his party in power.

But if the Prime Minister considers he is not prepared to wait until 2022, the alternative is for him to stand down within the next six months.

This will allow a new leader about 24 months, which is sufficient time to stamp his own personality, authority and policies on the country before putting his administration to the test in a general election at a time of his own choosing before mid-2022.

Secondly, it should be clear that the appointment of his successor is not Muscat’s responsibility. It is the responsibility of the party members to choose the next leader after a more restricted group of delegates have first whittled down the crop of contenders to just two.

Succession planning is a process which unfolds over time. This allows a long enough period to unearth the best talent in the party, so not one but several good potential candidates are identified.

A well-executed succession plan should ensure that the profile of the required candidate is defined with the skills-set needed to navigate the political landscape and challenges to be encountered when he or she takes over.

There are two crucial qualities for survival in the cutthroat world of Maltese politics. The first is the candidate’s ability as a leader to inspire and articulate a compelling future vision for Malta. And the second is the judgment to marshal the facts quickly and make the right political decision in fast-moving situations. 

The increasingly presidential character of modern Maltese politics and the advent of social media and marketing techniques have turned our leaders into political prize-fighters. They are the core assets for a party in its effort to win elections.

A good succession plan is vital if Muscat and the Labour Party are to retain their grip on power.

This is why the timing of the Prime Minister’s departure from centre stage in Maltese politics is of such importance.