Still a child, Sean Vella Caruana was fascinated whenever he heard his father, a teacher, talk about a Maltese weather-predicting tradition.

The tradition, L-irwiegel, involves monitoring the weather during the 12 days leading up to Christmas Day – from December 13 to 24. Each of the 12 days is believed to predict how the weather will be throughout each month of the following year: so, December 13 would correspond to January, December 14 to February and so on.

The word irwiegel is derived from the Italian word regola (rule) and has the same origin of the Maltese word riga, the ruler we use to measure length.

This does not only happen in Malta, though elsewhere is known as The Calends. Farmers in other countries in Europe, including Sicily, also employ this old practice of predicting the weather.

Malcolm Borg, from Għaqda Bdiewa Attivi, said farmers in Malta recognise L-irwiegel as a superstition.

“In the past, they believed in it. My grandfather used it too. But today’s farmers – young and old – realise it is nothing more than a superstition. Especially in the context of the weather changes brought about by climate change.

"Today, farmers don’t need L-irwiegel, they use the internet to know what the weather would be like,” he said.

Still, Vella Caruana is keeping up the tradition. “I am an engineer, I never really ran a study on the data but I started collecting it for fun and to keep up the tradition,” he said.

Now 53, he started documenting the data, on and off, since he was about 13 years old. At first, he used a notebook to record his observations but now he downloads the data on his computer.

Today’s farmers – young and old – realise it is nothing more than a superstition

In 2012, Vella Caruana, who is also an amateur photographer, set up the Facebook page Irwiegel, sharing information about the tradition as well as data.

The Met Office agreed that L-irwiegel is a tradition.

“Irwiegel are not reliable. It was a traditional attempt to predict the weather in the past,” a spokesperson said.

But could there be something there?

A look at the weather last year shows a random pattern: some results were “predicted” while others were not.

The table shows that some results were 'predicted' while others were not.

For example, the days corresponding to January and February 2024 – December 13 and 14, 2023 – were warm with temperatures of 20°C and 21°C. Those months turned out slightly warmer than the norm.

December 20 – corresponding to August – was cooler with a low of 12°C but the month was hotter than the norm. However, it did rain more than the norm during that month, a reflection of the isolated showers on the day.

So, the question is: Was I-irwiegel ever accurate? Did climate change stop that?

Whatever the reply, Vella Caruana noted: “The weather is always unpredictable and always a good source of conversation.”