Lithuanians yawn as crucial vote looms

When the head of the European Parliament visited Lithuania last month to drum up support for EU membership at a referendum in May, little more than a third of the Baltic state's lawmakers bothered to turn up to hear him.

Similar apathy among the country's 3.5 million voters in the May 10-11 referendum could torpedo Lithuania's plans to join the EU next year and have a knock-on effect in other former communist states still to vote on joining the bloc.

There is real concern that less than half the electorate will turn up to vote, rendering the referendum invalid.

Many Lithuanians are suffering from political fatigue after more than a decade of post-Soviet reforms that have propelled the country to the doorstep of the EU and Nato.

The absence of any organised opposition to the EU has left a dull, one-sided public debate, and even the recently introduced cut-price "Eurobeer" has failed to create much cheer.

"Many see EU entry as an arranged marriage - there is no love, no passion," said Baltic political expert Artis Pabriks.

"If Lithuania votes 'no', it could cause chaos in Europe." Among the 10 EU candidates, Slovenia, Hungary and Malta have already voted to join the EU next May, though Hungary's turnout was far lower than expected.

A fourth thumbs-up would help the pro-EU camp gather steam in the remaining candidates, especially Lithuania's more eurosceptic Baltic neighbours Latvia and Estonia.

Leaders in the closely integrated Baltic region hope a Lithuanian yes vote would push undecided voters in the other two countries to support EU entry and avoid an awkward split.

The biggest EU candidate, Poland, votes next month, also needing a 50 per cent turnout to make the referendum binding. Otherwise EU membership would lie in the hands of the country's fractious parliament.

Latest polls show 65 per cent of Lithuanians back EU entry, with opposition just above 13 per cent and the rest undecided.

Pollsters say there are no reliable turnout forecasts but expect it to be close to the 53 per cent level at January's presidential run-off when rightist Rolandas Paksas stunned pundits by ousting popular incumbent Valdas Adamkus.

Darius Pocius, a middle-aged tax collector, says he will vote yes, but fears not enough people would bother to vote.

"Lithuania is a totally provincial place," Pocius said. "We are such a small country and that's why we're joining the EU, to be something and not be stuck in the middle of nowhere."

Many Lithuanians point proudly to a small pyramid in a forest east of Vilnius that marks Europe's geographical centre. But others note this does not bring them any closer to the EU's political heart, 1,400 kilometres to the west in Brussels.

As in most of the ex-Soviet satellites queuing to join the EU, Lithuanians are split between younger, urban "haves", who stand to gain most from Brussels and elderly, rural "have nots", who see few benefits in joining a remote and faceless Union.

The political elite and city slickers talk of the benefits of EU political and economic integration, with more jobs, better facilities, travel and education opportunities. But many of those left behind by the post-Soviet reforms are less convinced.

"My opinion doesn't mean a damn thing - this was all decided long ago by the people in power," said Mr Albinas, who owns a tiny potato farm close to the eastern border with Belarus.

"I'm a nobody, and my song has already been sung," he said, explaining why he would not vote.

Albinas has seen little of the economic miracle that has turned the Baltic laggard into a "star performer" in the words of the International Monetary Fund. The economy grew by 6.7 per cent in 2002 despite a global downturn.

Albinas' 12-year-old daughter suggested that the EU could bring opportunities for travel, study and work, but Albinas scoffed at the idea.

"You need money to travel, but you don't have any," he said. Gediminas Kirkilas, head of parliament's foreign affairs committee, despairs at such attitudes, saying many Lithuanians fail to realise that a no vote will cost them dearly.

"Lithuania's economy, manufacturing and trade are already strongly integrated into the EU due to the belief that Lithuania will become a member state and adopt EU market rules," he said.

"Economists say that, if we don't join the EU, we'll lose 10 billion litas ($3.17 billion) in GDP growth annually."

Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas has tried to drive home a simpler message, saying a yes vote would mean that "for at least 30 years to come everything will be okay in Lithuania."

The ruling leftist coalition says there is no 'Plan B', meaning a no or invalid vote would force Lithuania to wait until 2007 for a second chance to join the EU along with Romania and Bulgaria.

But Mr Albinas said that would change nothing for him. "We drink our moonshine and smoke our contraband cigarettes, and that's enough for us."