Major surge in support for 'yes' vote

Supporters of the Nice Treaty on EU enlargement received a big boost yesterday as an opinion poll showed a major surge in support for a "yes" vote in next week's critical Irish referendum.

With the fate of the treaty hanging in the balance, a telephone survey of 934 people by Millward Brown IMS for Citigroup found the percentage intending to vote "yes" soared to 44 per cent from 29 per cent in a similar poll last month.

The level of opposition to the treaty edged up to 22 per cent from 19, while the percentage of those undecided dropped sharply to 27 from 44 per cent.

"I think it's probably a victory," said Michael Saunders, managing director of economic and market analysis for Citigroup in London.

Citigroup also noted that a "yes" victory would remove a potential negative factor hanging over the euro currency.

Ireland sent shockwaves through Europe when its voters, by a margin of 54 to 46 per cent, rejected the Nice Treaty in June 2001 in a referendum with 34 per cent turnout.

The government, seizing on the low turnout, has scrambled to put the issue to voters again before the end of the year when the treaty that reforms the EU to admit 12 candidate countries will expire unless ratified by all 15 current EU members.

The poll was released the same day the EU in Brussels said 10 countries can wrap up accession talks in December, but EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen said an Irish "no" could scupper the entire expansion project.

Deputy Prime Minister Mary Harney welcomed the poll finding but said "there can be no grounds for complacency".

"A major challenge still lies ahead in getting this proposal passed by the people," she said. A poll taken just before Ireland's first Nice Treaty vote last year had similar findings, but treaty supporters say a bigger turnout should carry the day.

"I'm very positive about it but I certainly wouldn't be willing to say it's won yet," said Dick Roche, the ruling Fianna Fail party's minister of state for European affairs.

Nice opponents complained that the government, in league with big business, labour and civic groups, is essentially buying the election with a huge warchest of more than one million euros while anti-treaty groups have next to nothing.

"It's entirely predictable," said John Gormley, a leader of the anti-treaty Green Party and member of parliament.

"All you have to do is look at the media coverage and look at the propaganda and people are succumbing to it."

For the last referendum, the "no" side blitzed Dublin and the countryside with hard-hitting posters and leaflets while the "yes" side seemed unable to come up with a winning theme.

This time, the pro-treaty side is keeping the message simple - the EU is good for a country deemed to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of EU largesse, and good for future generations.

Citigroup's economic research unit, which commissioned the poll from the Irish-based polling company, said that if the outcome of the October 19 referendum went as the poll suggested, it would dispel uncertainty hanging over both the EU and the euro.

"If the Treaty of Nice is not passed in Ireland, then it puts a cloud over expansion of the EU and the euro zone," currency strategist Steve Saywell said.

"...The fact that it now looks substantially more likely that we will see this pass in Ireland does remove that potential negative factor for the euro."

Saywell also said passage of the treaty could give a boost to proponents of Sweden joining the European Monetary Union, which is due to be put to a referendum there at a future date.

Ireland, alone of the current EU members, must ratify the treaty by referendum. If it is not passed before the end of the year the treaty will lapse.

The main arguments that opponents made last time were that approving the treaty would infringe on Ireland's traditional military neutrality by forcing it to participate in a pan-European military force.

They also argued that Ireland stood to lose many of its privileges and benefits within the EU.

This time around similar arguments are being heard but the pro-treaty forces, led by the ruling Fianna Fail party and major labour and business groups, have made an all-out push to convince people Ireland has benefited enormously from the EU.