The Maltese population could shrink by half in the next 45 years unless the country significantly improves its work-life balance, an academic has warned.
Prof Anna Borg stressed the urgency of the situation: “We aren’t understanding the severity of the situation. It shows we aren’t taking this seriously enough.”
Malta currently has the lowest fertility rate in the European Union, at just 1.08 births per woman – far below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.
According to a recent study, most parents initially want to have two children, yet many end up having fewer.
During a National Commission for the Promotion of Equality (NCPE) conference, Borg, an associate professor at the Centre for Labour Studies at the University of Malta, and Prof Liberato Camilleri presented their findings of a study called ‘Perceptions and attitudes towards work-life balance in Malta, with a particular focus on family size’.
The study suggests several family-friendly policies to encourage more people to have children.
These include extending maternity leave, increasing and improving paternity leave, promoting spatial and temporal flexibility at work, granting employee leave for sick children, ensuring equal work-family rights for both public and private sector employees, and exploring the feasibility of shorter workweeks amongst others.
However, it was Borg’s stark warning at the end of her speech that jolted the audience: “There is no guarantee that all of this will work. But we do know that if we do nothing, in 45 years, our population will decrease by half.”
Decline would have far-reaching consequences
Speaking to Times of Malta, Borg, who spoke in her capacity as an academic, warned that a significant population decline would have far-reaching consequences, impacting the housing market, the economy, and family structures.
“Imagine a generation with a lack of cousins; family structures will change, and loneliness will be on the rise. Imagine how sad that would be… And this is happening.”
Borg further warned that pending any changes to our work-life balance sooner rather than later, the decline could happen even quicker than 45 years.
Prof Rose Marie Azzopardi echoed these concerns at the same conference, emphasising that today’s childbearing generation would need to have at least three children for the population to increase.
She explained that even if this shift were achieved, it would take two generations – around 60 years – for the population to stabilise. If the current trend continues, it could take as long as 90 years.
Azzopardi’s calculations are based on a generational span of 30 years, highlighting the long-term nature of the challenge.
The last time Malta’s fertility rate reached the replacement level of two was in 1997, 28 years ago.
A 2024 study by the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation looked into the rate of children being born in 204 countries.
Using global data on births, deaths and what drives fertility, the researchers tried to forecast the future for the world’s population.
The researchers found that, by 2050, the population of three-quarters of all countries – including Malta – will shrink.
The Maltese government has issued a series of measures to try to boost the birth rate, while the Nationalist opposition also unveiled a number of measures to help with the numbers.