Germany will be having its federal election to elect the members of Parliament on September 26. The current chancellor, Angela Merkel, shall not be contesting this election, marking the end of an era lasting 16 years. It will be the first time since World War II that the incumbent chancellor will not be seeking e-election.
German elections always make the news because of Germany’s position as the EU leading economy. Their chancellors have always played a leading role in shaping European policies, both within the EU and outside it. One just needs to think of Konrad Adenauer, Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt, Helmut Kohl, Gerhard Schröder and now Angela Merkel to appreciate the importance of such elections.
Merkel announced that she will not be seeking re-election several months ago to give her party enough time to select a candidate and for this candidate to position oneself as a future chancellor.
German politics have been characterised by coalition governments for most years since 1945, but they have also been characterised by stable governments. Reaching consensus is part of the German way of doing politics.
During her tenure, Merkel had to manage the international finance crisis of 2007, the subsequent economic recession, the sovereign debt crisis involving mainly Greece, the weakening of the euro, the migrant crisis, bumpy relations with the US, Russia and China, Brexit and, lastly, the coronavirus. In each of these issues, she was a leading European voice and was seen as an anchor.
Her consensus-building approach, which comes so natural to her because of the German way of doing politics, means that most Europeans have accepted her and her country as the European leader.
German politics have been characterised by coalition governments
Most Europeans believe that they can trust Germany to defend their interests and back German economic leadership. So her departure from national German politics raises two questions. First, what will be the future German economic policy? If we accept that Germany is Europe’s economic locomotive, then this is an issue that will interest all European counties, especially members of the eurozone.
Second, will Merkel be back in a European role? Some politicians may not like her to be back, especially those who are seeking to take the leadership role on the European scene, but I believe that Europe needs her back. This second question is purely hypothetical and so we can put it aside. However, the first question is essential.
For example, with the knowledge of hindsight, without Merkel, would the sovereign debt crisis have led to a disintegration of the euro and eventually of the EU?
The need to rebalance fiscal budgets (post-coronavirus) will become a contentious issue once again. Will there be an attempt to seek some form of consensus or will new German economic policy be softer or harder?
As China and Russia seek to gain more power on the international stage, will Germany use its economic clout to strengthen the EU voice in the world? What will be Germany’s position on climate change and what will its stand be on the idea of using EU financial resources to push forward certain policies?
We will need to wait for the results of the September 26 elections and see what sort of coalition government will be formed. There are those who believe that Germany will continue to sacrifice some of its own interests for the sake of cohesion within the EU. There are others who believe that a future German chancellor will not be so willing to seek consensus.
Now that Merkel is leaving, I believe most of Europe will be anxious to know how German economic and other policies will be shaped in the future.