My Premier League predictions – part one

Every August, I make my Premier League predictions with a level of confidence normally reserved for people who think they can fix a leaky tap without turning off the mains. (*)

Nine and a half months later they usually turn out to be about as accurate as a darts player on a trampoline.

What felt like absolute certainties in August have a habit of collapsing under injuries, chaos, and the football gods’ incredibly twisted sense of humour.

But you don’t come here for accuracy, you come for my unshakeable conviction. An unshakable conviction that never ages well. So here’s exactly how the bottom half of the table will shape up come next May.

Definitely maybe.

20th – Sunderland: It’s always nice to have a proper football club like Sunderland back in the Premier, but it won’t be for long. They’ve spent £150 million on new players but that’s still not enough in modern football. The Stadium of Light will roar, but most of that noise will be frustration as plucky effort bangs heads with Premier League finishing. Staying up would be a miracle; instead, they’ll go down swinging and singing songs about how they are better than Newcastle. Ironic.

19th – Burnley: Scott Parker is arguable the greatest Championship manager of the modern era. Promoted three times with three different clubs, he knows how to get a team out of the second tier. But that’s where his talent seems to run out. Things don’t go very well once he reaches the top level. They’ll be physical, combative and organised, but there’s not enough guile or goals to survive in this league. Turf Moor will see a few scalp-taking afternoons, but most weekends will be lessons in elite finishing, delivered by the opposition. A tough, short return that ends in familiar territory.

18th – Brentford: After several seasons of getting Brentford to over-perform on the sort of budget big clubs spend on their training ground, Thomas Frank decided he fancied becoming the latest manager to throw himself into the jaws of the Spurs manager-eating machinery. The club chose to replace him from within, specifically with set-piece coach Keith Andrews. It’s an interesting move, but not one that has a high chance of success. Most pundits only see them flirting with the bottom three, but I expect them to actually crawl into bed with Mrs Relegation with a rose clenched between their teeth.

If Calvert says we are going down, there’s still hope- Sunderland, Burnley and Brentford fans

17th – Wolverhampton Wanderers: Wolves will scrap, snarl, defend in packs, and make Molineux awkward yet again, but they’ll spend the season looking over their shoulders at the trap door that leads to Championship hell. Over the last few years, the club’s best players have been consistently lured away by the big boys, leaving them in a state of perpetual rebuilding. But they still have enough to fight their way to survival which, under the circumstances, will feel like winning the treble.

16th – Leeds United: The first thing Daniel Farke had to contend with after ensuring promotion was rumours he was going to be replaced by someone, well, less Daniel Farke-like. He’s survived to the opening day, but will be among the favourites for the chop, purely because Leeds still have the mistaken belief that they are one of the big boys. And that chop will come at some point. Between Farke and whoever replaces him, they’ll scrape enough wins to stay up, but it will be tense and full of drama, like trying to park in Sliema on a Saturday morning. Or any morning.

15th – Bournemouth: Andoni Iraola had them punching above their weight last season, finishing in a lofty ninth place and briefly looking like European contenders. This year brings a little reality check. They’ll still be brave going forward, but the giant-killings will be fewer and the slip-ups more frequent. All things considered, this isn’t going to be a great season but not a horrible one either.

14th – Brighton and Hove Albion: The fact that Brighton are now a well-established Premier League team still leaves me a bit dazed. Along with Bournemouth, these two seaside clubs just don’t feel like they should be in the top-flight, based on a mix of geography, history and overall size. But Brighton are well run and totally deserve their place as a mainstay of the Premiership. This won’t be one of their greatest seasons, but it will be solid enough not to be scary.

13th – West Ham United: After being given roughly three days to build a title-winning team at Stamford Bridge, Graham Potter will be hoping he gets a season or two to stamp his authority on West Ham. However, his first few months at the club last season were rather mediocre and the fans’ patience won’t last forever. I can’t see much more than mid-table for the Hammers this time round, but I do fancy them for a cup run. And if there’s one thing Hammers love more than blowing bubbles, it’s lifting silverware.

12th – Fulham: Under Marco Silva, Fulham are like a cup of tea you forgot about for 10 minutes: not piping hot, not stone cold, but reasonably drinkable. They’ll upset a few giants, coast through most weeks, and settle into 12th with the calm certainty of a club that knows mid-table mediocrity is their thing.

11th – Crystal Palace: Palace start the season fuming after losing their appeal against being relegated from the Europa League to the Conference. Selhurst Park will be even louder than usual partly because the football is enjoyable but mostly out of righteous indignation. Oliver Glasner’s side will be solid and awkward to beat with surprising flair going forward. If they could somehow win the Conference League, though, it would be the perfect two fingers up at UEFA.

So that’s your part one done and dusted.

Honest? Absolutely yes. Accurate? Undoubtedly not.

Fans of Sunderland, Burnley and Brentford won’t have found it a pleasant read. But then again, given my track record, they will probably be thinking that if Calvert says we are going down, there’s still hope.

Tune in next Sunday for part two which, let’s be honest, is the bit that will really get most people’s juices flowing.

Oh, and before you complain, part two has already been locked in with the editor, so there’ll be no jiggery pokery based on the first bunch of games.

How’s that for fair play.

(* I am entirely incapable of fixing a leaky tap, whether or not the water mains are switched off.)

E-mail: Jamescalvertmalta@gmail.com

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