Near Mission Impossible for UN in Cyprus

After a week of talks in Switzerland failed to bridge differences, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan put his best face on the result saying the east Mediterranean island's future was now up to its people.

Sombre-looking UN diplomats know the highest hurdle is now a referendum on both sides of the island on April 24.

Opinion polls have suggested the power-sharing plan will get a resounding thumbs-down from the Greek Cypriot south where many people consider it demands too many concessions from them.

The climate is slightly different in the Turkish Cypriot north, where a pro-settlement party won a majority of votes in a general election in December.

"I'm not going to celebrate until the referendum is approved," UN envoy Alvaro de Soto told reporters after a week of exhaustive consultations with the two sides.

He may have a long wait. Latest opinion polls have shown the "no" vote among Greek Cypriots as high as 90 per cent - ironic since they have long been the most vocal in calling for reunification.

Clearly unhappy with the compromise proposed, the Greek Cypriot leadership withheld giving a formal rubber-stamp to the proposal, leaving endorsement from the public in jeopardy.

"There has to be some sense that the parties negotiated, and not that it was just a plan forced on the two sides with no real discussion," said James Ker-Lindsay of Civiltas Research, a think-tank based in the Cypriot capital Nicosia.

Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot side said they were prepared to formally sign a deal for the referendum, but in the absence of a similar commitment from Greeks, Mr Annan could not declare a total victory.

His proposals would usher a united island into the European Union on May 1, ending decades of Turkish Cypriot isolation and giving Turkey's hopes of early accession talks with the bloc an essential boost.

Greek Cypriots want reunification but are furious with UN proposals that would allow a Turkish military presence on the island indefinitely and also concerned at planned restrictions on settling in the Turkish Cypriot north. Some 160,000 of them fled their homes in the area in 1974, when Turkish forces invaded after a Greek Cypriot coup engineered by the military then ruling Greece.

"Unfortunately people in Cyprus have become accustomed to the impression that a settlement could be quite different than what it could realistically be," said Mr de Soto. "There is a heavy responsibility on the leaders to explain to the people what they stand to lose if they do not seize this opportunity." For Turkish Cypriots, a failed referendum would be a continuation of a crippling isolation from the outside world. For Greek Cypriots, it would be the entrenchment of a painful partition even though whatever happens they will go into the EU as the bloc's easternmost border from May 1.

Key events in modern history of Cyprus

1878 - The Ottoman Empire hands over Cyprus to British administration while retaining nominal sovereignty.

1914 - Britain annexes Cyprus, later absorbing it formally as a crown colony.

1955 - Greek Cypriot EOKA guerilla group launches armed revolt against British rule.

1960 - Britain grants independence to Cyprus under a power-sharing constitution between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. Britain, Greece and Turkey assume the role of guarantors of Cyprus's status.

1963 - Greek Cypriot President Archbishop Makarios proposes changes to the constitution, effectively abrogating power-sharing arrangements with the Turks. Inter-communal violence erupts.

1964 - Power sharing crumbles amid fighting; government formed without Turkish Cypriots. UN peacekeeping force (UNFICYP) established.

1967 - Military seizes power in Greece.

1974 - Military junta in Greece backs July coup against Makarios. Militants advocating union with Greece overthrow him. Five days after the coup Turkish troops land in northern Cyprus. Greek Cypriots flee their homes.

1974 - Turkey and Greece come close to war. The coup quickly collapses as does the Athens junta. Turkish forces occupy a third of the island.

1977 and 1979 - Greek and Turkish Cypriots agree in principle that Cyprus should be a bicommunal federal republic with powers and functions of a central federal state.

1983 - Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash declares a breakaway state in northern Cyprus. Only Turkey recognises it.

1998 - Government of Cyprus begins EU accession talks.

1999 - EU accepts Turkey as a candidate for membership.

1999-2000 - UN-led talks held in New York and Geneva, which end inconclusively.

January 16, 2002 - Reunification talks start. June deadline passes without result.

November 11, 2002 - UN presents peace plan for Cyprus calling for broad power-sharing and a return of territory to Greek Cypriots.

March 11, 2002 - UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan announces end of efforts to reunite island and withdrawal of his peace envoy, Alvaro de Soto.

April 16, 2002 - Cyprus signs accession treaty with EU.

April 22, 2002 - Denktash authorises opening checkpoints on the so-called "Green Line" for day trips, to bolster confidence between the two sides.

December 14, 2002 - Landmark Turkish Cypriot election ends in dead heat with rival anti UN plan and pro-plan blocs landing 25 parliament seats each.

January 24, 2004 - The Turkish Cypriot enclave's new coalition government wins vote of confidence, setting stage for a renewed push to end the island's division.

February 13, 2004 - Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriots agree in New York to road map for talks on Annan's reunification plan for Cyprus before its May 1 entry into the EU.

February 19, 2004 - Talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders begin.

March 22, 2004 - Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos says bilateral negotiations with Turkish Cypriots have reached no agreement and will move to Switzerland, where Turkey and Greece will join them.

March 24, 2004 - Expanded negotiations start in Buergenstock, Switzerland.

March 27, 2004 - UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan takes personal charge of negotiations.

March 29, 2004 - Annan submits a revised reunification text, seeking reactions from the parties before filling in any final disputed blanks.

March 31, 2004 - Mr Annan submits final reunification plan, sending it to public referendum on April 24.