New Turkish government likely to back US on Iraq

Turkey seems likely to back any US action against neighbouring Iraq despite the sweeping electoral victory of a new party accused by its enemies of harbouring radical Islamist elements.

But Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as yet an unknown face in Washington, may try to exact a heavy price for use of airbases and other facilities to offset economic losses that could destabilise his infant government.

"They'll take great care in cultivating relations with the United States," former foreign minister Ilter Turkmen told Reuters. "For the moment things are going very well.

"(Erdogan) is being very cautious." Erdogan has every reason to be cautious, not least in his dealings with the Turkish armed forces' General Staff.

The generals play a crucial role in politics as ultimate guarantors of secularist democracy in a country belonging to the Western military alliance Nato and clearly have reservations about the chief of the party that triumphed in Sunday's polls.

In his victory speeches on Sunday, Erdogan went out of his way to reassure those who distrust him for his fiery Islamist past. Whatever his history, he is no Islamist, he said, but a pro-Western democrat with patriotic, not religious, ambitions.

It would be foolhardy for Erdogan to cross the military and its US allies even if he wanted to. The Turkish military would almost certainly bow to the wishes of the their US allies.

"On security issues the military has the final say," says Cengiz Candar, commentator at the Islamist Yeni Safak newspaper.

"If the question is that of using airspace, bases and deployment of special forces (across the border), I don't think they could refuse that," Turkmen said.

Military sources say the United States is highly unlikely to ask anything more than this if it decides to act and would certainly not want to see Turkish troops in combat. Turkey would in effect provide the same backing it did in the 1991 Gulf War.

It already allows its southern Incirlik base to be used by US and British warplanes to patrol a no-fly zone over a Kurdish enclave declared in northern Iraq after 1991.

Washington might even be quietly relieved at the departure of veteran Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, heading a caretaker government while AKP builds its own administration. He has been outspoken in public opposition to US action in Iraq.

Both the Americans and Turkey's military must deal now with new faces in the civilian administration. An entire old guard of politicians including Ecevit was swept away by Sunday's polls.

The Chief of General Staff, Turkey's top military man, is, however, well enough known to his US allies. He flew to Washington for talks soon after casting his vote on Sunday.

Candar said Erdogan might see the Iraqi issue as an opening in his campaign to woo a reluctant establishment.

"I wouldn't say Erdogan would be enthusiastic about getting involved in a US action and there are parts of his grassroots support that would be passionately opposed to it," he said.

"But this would be an opportunity for him to work with the military and to accommodate them. It could be a blessing in bringing him closer to the military."

Military suspicions of Erdogan are rooted in his involvement with a series of parties later banned for Islamist subversion. In 1997 Turkey's first Islamist-led government was forced from power after a pressure campaign spearheaded by the armed forces.

Erdogan served four months in jail in the 1990s for reading a poem at a rally that was deemed to incite religious hatred.

A political ban disqualified him from Sunday's polls. He cannot join the new AKP government but has signalled already that he will lead foreign as well as domestic policy.

Those sceptical of Erdogan's instincts argue a profoundly religious man might be sympathetic to a Muslim Arab neighbour such as Iraq. With a large Kurdish minority like Iraq, it is also keen to prevent any fragmentation of its neighbour.

Candar cited Erdogan as saying in the poll campaign that Muslims cannot endorse a dictatorship in a neighbouring country.

"He has a different interpretation of this issue to the one you might expect," Candar said.

Erdogan had made no declaration of policy on Iraq since the polls. He has said only that Turkey is bound by UN decisions - a legalistic escape that could be interpreted in many ways.

The present situation has few charms for Turkey. Embargoes limit trade with a formerly important partner and the relationship with President Saddam Hussein is fraught.

Erdogan's deputy, Abdullah Gul, signalled in an interview with Reuters where Turkey's deep concerns lie.

"This is a domestic issue for us," he said. "After the first Gulf War, we suffered a lot... 500,000 refugees rushing into Turkey, losses in trade and the tourist industry."

Financial markets could be hit and interest rates on a heavy debt load would rise, threatening a $16 billion IMF crisis plan.

Diplomats say Turkey is seeking firm US promises of financial support in advance of any action.

"We can't change our geography, our borders," Gul said, with a sigh and wave of a finger. "Iraq is there and we are here."