Newspaper report on Nice Treaty vote stuns Irish

A newspaper report that Ireland could pass a parliamentary declaration supporting EU enlargement even if voters reject the Nice Treaty again next week sent shockwaves yesterday through the pro-Nice campaign.

With just over a week to go before the October 19 vote, the government rushed to pour cold water on the report in the Irish Times which could be interpreted by voters as meaning their will would be ignored if they defeat the treaty a second time.

Foreign Minister Brian Cowen said any such declaration would be undemocratic and had no basis in the Irish constitution while Deputy Prime Minister Mary Harney rejected the idea as "utter nonsense".

"There is no legal basis for the suggestion that has been made as being an adequate response to overturn the popular will of the people in this republic under constitution," Cowen told reporters.

The treaty makes administrative reforms of the EU to permit the entry of 12 candidates states. Ireland alone of the current EU members must approve the treaty by referendum.

Irish voters rejected the treaty once last year and a second defeat would cause the treaty to lapse, as well as being a serious blow to government prestige.

The report from Brussels quoted unnamed European sources as saying the European Union would ask the Irish parliament to pass a declaration backing EU enlargement if voters reject the treaty a second time.

"The idea is that the Irish should provide us with their interpretation of what the vote means, declaring that in the eyes of Ireland it is not a rejection of enlargement," the paper quoted a senior official as saying.

Diplomatic sources confirmed to Reuters in Brussels that it was agreed informally at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Denmark in September that if Ireland votes no again, Prime Minister Bertie Ahern would issue a statement saying enlargement should proceed.

Endorsement of such a declaration by the Irish parliament would be up to the government to seek.

The report caused a huge ripple in the campaign by the government, business and civic associations and organised labour to secure passage of the Nice Treaty.

The potential damage of such a plan was acknowledged by the ruling Fianna Fail party, which strongly backs Nice.

"Clearly the issue of what happens after the vote is significant and is one that will weigh on voters' minds," Health Minister Micheal Martin told Reuters.

"If people had a view that this (referendum) doesn't matter at all then that would have a serious impact on the vote," he said.

However, the proposal for a parliamentary declaration supporting EU enlargement was embraced by some elements of the anti-Nice campaign, who have been at pains to say they do not oppose enlargement, but do not like the treaty.

"No organised group on the 'No' side is against EU enlargement," Anthony Coughlan, head of the National Platform, said in a statement.

"If a Dail (parliament) declaration, supported by all parties, were useful in reassuring people following a second Irish 'No' vote, that would be all to the good."

Latest opinion polls shows support strongly shifting in favour of a "Yes" vote, but both sides agree the outcome could hinge on the size of the turnout, with a bigger turnout seen as favouring the pro-Nice camp.