The European elections have come and gone and there was no populist surge, even though some right-wing parties did gain considerable support, particularly in Italy, Poland and Flanders. However, the Liberals and Greens, both pro-EU parties, made impressive advances – showing voters who want change are still happy to support parties that believe in European values.

Overall, the political centre held, 75 per cent of the seats were won by pro-European parties and voter turnout increased to 51 per cent – its highest since 1994, showing voters are indeed interested in Europe.

A major feature of this election was the fact that the centre-right European People’s Party (Christian Democrats) and the centre-left Socialists lost their combined majority, and must now be ready to cooperate more effectively with the Liberals and Greens. The European Parliament is about to enter a new era with these two latter parties having increased clout.

The seat allocation after the election is as follows: The Left: 39 seats (52 in 2014); Socialists: 146 (186); Greens: 69 (52); Liberals: 109 (68); European People’s Party: 180 (217); Conservatives and Reformists: 59 (76); Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy: 54 (41); Europe of Nations and Freedom: 58 (37); Non-attached or Independent: 37 (21).

As the number of populist and right-wing movements have grown it is important to explain which parties form part of these groups. The Conservatives and Reformists consist of parties such as the UK Conservatives, Poland’s Law and Justice Party and the Czech Civic Democratic Party; the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy include the UK Brexit Party, Italy’s 5-Star Movement and Alternative for Germany; while the Europe of Nations and Freedom include Italy’s League (Matteo Salvini), France’s National Rally (Marie Le Pen), the Austrian Freedom Party, the Flemish Vlaams Belang and the Dutch Party for Freedom (Geert Wilders).

These three groups had a total of 154 seats in the outgoing Parliament; they now have 171 seats, a combined increase of 17 seats, not exactly a surge, but an increase nevertheless which should not be ignored. It is also important to note that these parties are really quite diverse, they have different interests and priorities and are unable to adopt a common stand on a whole range of issues from migration to relations with Russia and flexibility on the eurozone’s rules.

The really big winner on the right is Salvini’s League in Italy, who did particularly well, getting 34 per cent of the vote, largely at the expense of its domestic coalition partner, the 5-Star Movement. The League is now Italy’s dominant political force and some observers believe Salvini will abandon Rome’s coalition in order to force new elections. Salvini is also now without doubt the leader of Europe’s nationalist right.

The political centre held and 75 per cent of the seats were won by pro-European parties

In France Marine Le Pen’s National Rally very narrowly beat President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist La République En Marche (part of the Liberal Group) by 23.3 per cent to 22.41 per cent. While this was no doubt a symbolic victory for Le Pen, her result was only two per cent higher than what she got in the first round of the French presidential election in 2017 – when she then went on to be thrashed by Macron in the second round. One also has to understand that Macron is in the middle of his term of office and has had to take a number of difficult, but necessary decisions in order to restructure the economy.

In Poland the ruling conservative Law and Justice Party took 45.4 per cent of the vote, its best ever result, but far-right parties in the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Austria did not do well.  In other developments the centre-right EPP did well in Germany (even though the CDU/CSU lost some support), Greece, Austria and in Central and Eastern Europe, while the Socialists did best in Spain, Portugal, Malta and the Netherlands.

The Greens did particularly well in Germany (where they got more votes than the Social Democrats), Finland, France and the UK, showing the importance of climate change as a key political issue, especially among young voters in Western Europe. In Germany, for example, many young voters who previously voted for the CDU/CSU switched to the Greens.

In the UK, the Conservatives and Labour performed very badly, while the new Brexit Party and the pro-EU Liberal Democrats did very well. An interesting fact is that leaving aside the Conservative and Labour vote, which totalled only 22.6 per cent,  the pro-EU parties got more votes, 38.4 per cent, than the Brexit parties, who got 34 per cent. This is probably why the Leavers in the UK are so against a second referendum.

The European election results have delivered a more fragmented European Parliament – and we can expect the UK Brexit Party MEPs to be as disruptive as they can – but as I have already stressed, there still exists a very large centrist pro-EU majority. New alliances will have to be formed, and hopefully the mainstream parties will now be pushed into listening harder to citizens’ concerns, from migration to climate change.

In a nutshell, the European People’s Party and the Socialists will have to find ways of working with the Liberals and the Greens. It’s a challenge but also an opportunity for these four major pro-European political families to offer a new beginning which Europe so badly needs.

European leaders have now started the process of finding suitable replacements for the top EU jobs that will become vacant later this year, notably the president of the European Commission, the president of the European Council, the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy and the president of the European Central Bank.

A number of EU leaders, such as Macron, have already made it clear that they do not agree with the ‘Spitzenkandidat’ system, where before the elections the European Parliament groups nominate candidates for president of the European Commission. This does not augur well for Manfred Weber (who is backed by Angela Merkel), the candidate of the largest group, the European People’s Party, who now expects to replace Jean-Claude Juncker.

However, there are a number of excellent potential candidates from various political groupings to fill the EU’s top posts. European leaders now have an opportunity to choose the right people who can steer the bloc through a period of renewal and change which, as these European elections have shown, the EU clearly needs.

There will be plenty of horse trading over the next few months but in the end what is important is that the results of the European election are taken into consideration and the selected nominees have the right mix of competence, experience, the ability to build consensus and the firm belief that Europe needs to change and to be renewed.  

This is a Times of Malta print opinion piece