Robert Abela has lost his majority of seats in Europe. His 40,000-vote lead has evaporated. Abela made this election a vote of confidence in him: “This election is about whether you want to renew your faith in me or if you want to send a message in support of the establishment.” And the electorate turned its back on him, depriving him of his fourth MEP seat. The election result is a rejection of his hostile hysteria and a vote for moderation and decency.
Now the real test will be how Abela responds to the electorate’s rebuke. Will he come to his senses and step back from his hostile divisive rhetoric? Or will he accelerate his authoritarianism, will he ratchet up his persecution of the independent media, escalate his efforts to capture more of the country’s institutions and keep stifling the voice of the opposition?
Abela put a brave face on the disappointing result. But, behind his fake broad smile, he’s seething with bitterness and envy for Labour’s Invictus. He’s wracked with nagging doubts. The voice in his head tells him: you’re no Joseph, you’re a loser. The people love him, they adore him – not you.
Labour has prevailed again but it haemorrhaged tens of thousands of votes and its aura of invincibility. Still, Abela portrayed the result as an endorsement of his leadership, support for his assault on the institutions and absolution for his party’s behaviour.
The result is a rejection of his autocracy. The very significantly withered Labour majority, coupled with the substantial proportion of abstentions, is a message to Abela: “you’ve been put on notice.” It’s a condemnation of the lies, deception, dishonesty and secrecy.
Labour deserved to lose its majority of seats and its majority of votes. It would have lost far more hadn’t Labour spent so lavishly on its campaign
and abused of its incumbency so rampantly with letters
from ARMS, cheques in the post, allocation of social
accommodation, last-minute
announcements of new initiatives, and desperate granting of personal favours.
But Abela also resorted to hostile, divisive rhetoric. He made the elementary error of attacking everybody. The list of people and groups you can be offensive towards without losing support is short. Abela antagonised everybody, lumping all into his “cruel establishment” – the magistrate, the judiciary, the prosecution, the Church, the media, the opposition, Europe, the Chamber of Advocates, university students, the Malta Union of Bankers, the Malta Chamber and so many other perceived enemies of a paranoid Labour.
In his attempt to galvanise his base, Abela antagonised moderates, shooting himself in the foot. He miscalculated badly. He wagered that it would profit him to stir up the mob, to incite hate. But the country is tiring of the fake tension Abela keeps stoking, the crises and unnecessary conflicts he creates. His despicable adverts accusing Roberta Metsola of being a war-monger and of “bombing children” might have impressed the diehards but it disgusted the moderates, the floaters, the young. His strategy failed. And Metsola sailed to victory on the wings of Labour’s disgusting lies.
How will Abela react? He could tone down his hostile rhetoric, become more tolerant of dissenting Labour stalwarts, start to listen to the voices of reason coming from genuine lifelong Labour activists.
The real test will be how Robert Abela responds to the electorate’s rebuke
He could recognise that greatness comes not from electoral victories but from doing what’s right for the country – strengthening the rule of law, empowering law enforcement and the judiciary to fulfil their duties without intimidation and political interference and ensuring transparent administration of justice.
Greatness entails bringing rampant corruption, cronyism and abuse under control. Yes, it means abandoning the former leader and his co-accused to defend themselves against the serious accusations they face, without his party’s constant harassment of the institutions.
Greatness is achieved through rising above petty partisanship and accepting that implementing the Caruana Galizia inquiry recommendations would make the country a better place with a brighter future – and implement them with urgency.
Abuse of office, unexplained wealth orders, criminal association (associazione Mafiosa) must be brought in. And everybody should be treated equally before the law.
Or he could double down with his devious manipulation, his bullying of the magistrate, his attacks on the media, his protection of his former colleagues, taking the country with him down a dangerously dark alley. He could become more vengeful and vindictive.
What will Abela do? Your guess is as good as mine. But Abela’s feeble character, his manifest insecurities and his petty puerility suggest he’ll choose the latter. His position as leader is now at risk – and he knows it. He’ll be blamed by both ends of his own party for his failure to retain their majority of seats. Muscat’s faction will be furious at him for refusing to allow Muscat to contest.
The moderates will be fuming that Abela hitched the party onto Muscat’s cause, despite the serious crimes he’s accused of and the mountain of incriminating evidence against him.
They know that the next avalanche to hit the party is also of Muscat’s making – the 17 Black inquiry. They may have staved off its publication until after the election but its impact will hit soon enough. It’s already hit the international media.
Yorgen Fenech’s trial, the Mozura wind farm and the Marsa flyover will follow in quick succession.
Pressure will be mounting on Abela. Those who funded and provided resources for the election campaign will be clamouring for their pound of flesh, seeking a return on their investment. The real fear of a repeat of last year’s calamitous power cuts, the contamination of our beaches with overflow of raw sewage, the chaos with refuse collection all wait for the summer months.
Questions about his succession have started to swirl. Friendly fire will be far more damaging for Abela than his adversaries’. Potential successors are positioning themselves to pounce. Chris Fearne has no
European distraction now. Alex Agius Saliba will be buoyed by his personal success and the backing of Muscat and his faction. Miriam Dalli will be deciding whether to return to the relative calm of Brussels or enter the local fray. And the ambitious Silvio Schembri will be lurking with intent.
Abela’s choice will determine his legacy and the future of our country. But there won’t be any happy endings to Labour’s term in office – there never is. It’s always a hard slog, splattered with the blood of innocents like Raymond Caruana and Daphne Caruana Galizia.
In 1987, Dom Mintoff pulled the country back from the brink by finally agreeing to the constitutional changes that ensured the will of the people was truly sovereign.
Sadly, Abela is no Mintoff.