Obama secures place in history

Over the past two weeks, US President Barack Obama has pulled off two massive achievements which will go down in history as among the greatest accomplishments of his presidency, namely healthcare reform and a major nuclear arms agreement with Russia.

Obama and his allies in Congress managed to pass healthcare reform that extends health insurance coverage to 32 million previously uninsured Americans and which outlaws companies from refusing to cover people with pre-existing medical conditions. This is something many US Presidents tried to achieve but failed and Obama certainly deserves credit for succeeding.

The President's healthcare reform is a landmark development and in historical terms is as important as the establishment of social security, Medicare and Medicaid. Yes, the health reform bill was controversial and was opposed by the Republicans who have promised to repeal it; some Republicans have even tried to challenge its legality at a state level. However, major reforms are usually always divisive and it is fair to say that this is indeed a proud moment for President Obama and the Democratic Party.

The arms control agreement between the US and Russia is the first between the two sides in eight years and will replace the START treaty that expired last December.

Hundreds of nuclear weapons on both sides are to be dismantled - the two countries will still retain a formidable nuclear arsenal - but the new treaty is a step in the right direction and will make the world a safer place. It will also show the international community that the US and Russia are serious about (gradual) nuclear disarmament.

What now for Obama, and will these two key achievements help him in November's mid-term elections? Not necessarily. Numerous polls have shown it is the economy - in particular unemployment - that matters most to voters.

The country, is, after all, still emerging from its worst recession in decades and people without a job are unlikely to be impressed by a nuclear arms treaty or the fact that healthcare coverage has now been greatly extended, important though it is.

A CBS/New York Times poll taken in February showed 52 per cent of respondents identified the economy as their top priority, with only 13 per cent choosing healthcare. As healthcare dominated the headlines in March a CNN survey showed that the gap between the two issues narrowed but the economy was still the number one concern, at 43 per cent, compared to 23 per cent for healthcare.

The jobless figures will no doubt have a major impact on the November elections, and, if the rate remains what it is today, 9.7 per cent, there will likely be a swing against Obama and the Democrats. If the US witnesses decent job growth from now until November, which Obama is hoping for, then the Republicans will probably make only modest gains.

If the economic situation does not improve it is likely that the Republicans will try and connect healthcare and the economy in their campaign. For example, Republican House leader John Boehner said recently as Obama's healthcare legislation was being pushed through Congress: "Americans are asking: 'Where are the jobs?' But Democrats remain focused on this job-killing government takeover of healthcare".

It is important that Obama now takes advantage of his recent successes to re-focus his presidency and to concentrate on restoring the economy, creating jobs and leading the nation. One of the reasons why Obama's original healthcare proposals were so unpopular was that the President allowed the Democratic Party in Congress to take the initiative and come up with most of the proposals, which did not go down well with the electorate.

After the Democrats lost their filibuster-proof majority in the Senate in January, the President discarded the more expensive House version of the Bill, concentrated on the more moderate Senate version, and travelled throughout the country selling his reform proposals, something he should have done much earlier.

Obama must now exploit the momentum created by his healthcare success and concentrate all his energy on restoring the economy; otherwise he will suffer in November. It is important, for example, that the President spells out clearly how he intends to reduce America's massive fiscal deficit, something he has not been very clear about and about which voters are indeed worried. He also needs to convince Congress to pass his climate change Bill, and will need all his energy and charisma to manage this.

It is normal for the opposition party in America to makes some gains in a mid-term election, but Obama cannot afford to lose by a wide margin. A weakened US President is not good news either domestically or internationally, and on the global front Obama has many key challenges ahead, such as Iran, China and the situation in the Middle East.

After the healthcare success, perhaps we will now witness a new determined, more effective President.