The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised its 2021 global growth projection for next year down from 5.0 per cent to 4.2 per cent. This follows an upward revision for 2020 annual growth, up from -4.5 per cent to -4.2 per cent.

2022 annual growth expectations remain at 3.7 per cent, a marginal moderation from 2021. It added that the world economy is expected to return to the pre-COVID-19 crisis GDP levels by the end of 2021, aided by the prospect of wide availability of vaccines. The OECD, however, warned that “the path remains long and difficult”.

Italy’s third quarter exit from recession was confirmed by Istat. The 15.9 per cent increase in GDP followed a 13 per cent contraction the previous quarter. Istat added that the increase represented a downward revision from its initial Q3 estimate of 16.1 per cent growth. Italy’s GDP has contracted five per cent on an annual basis.

The GDP growth recovery was experienced across various components, with consumption expenditure rising 9.2 per cent compared to the Q2, and gross fixed investment soaring 31.3 per cent over the same period. Net trade also increased, with imports rising by 15.9 per cent and exports rising by 30.7 per cent. Contribution to the rebound in GDP came from across all main sectors, with industrial growth coming in at 33.1 per cent and services growing at 11.9 per cent. Farm output was relatively stable, gaining 0.2 per cent output in Q3 over the previous quarter.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the euro area fell marginally from 8.5 per cent in September down to 8.4 per cent in October 2020. Unemployment in the eurozone was highest in July of the same year after rising to 8.7 per cent from a low of 7.2 per cent in April.

Despite there being 86,000 less people classified as unemployed in the economic bloc, Eurostat pointed out that the statistic only includes people who were unemployed and actively seeking employment in the preceding four weeks and were also available to start work in the following two weeks.

Eurostat also highlighted the surge in unemployment benefit claims across EU member states and that a material proportion of those registered were no longer actively searching for employment or were not available to work owing to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This article was compiled by Bank of Valletta for general information purposes only.