The beginning of the new decade was characterised by the novel coronavirus originating from a wet market in Wuhan, China. It was thought of as yet another sensationalised outbreak similar to the recent Ebola and Zika which quickly faded out of the limelight. However, this is more of a black swan event like 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis – unexpected and globally devastating.
It has captivated the world for nearly three months (and counting) while it disrupted whole industries, schools and families. But most importantly, it served as a harsh wake-up call to face our vulnerabilities as an all-knowing, all-powerful species.
As the novel virus made its way out of Wuhan, around China and beyond, one could admire the technological responses that were also novel.
Functional online dashboards were made available to track the spread and the death rate and people could turn to educational videos on YouTube and Netflix (the series Pandemic released in January).
Unfortunately, other shady sources of information were also successful in promoting ineffective face masks, garlic remedies and expensive lotion cures. The age of fake news was never more apparent and this outbreak will hopefully push people to be more sceptical. As a society, we need to trust the experts to keep us updated.
People could also witness live footage from China of the construction of a 1,000 bed hospital in a matter of days. The Chinese regime also flexed its muscles by imposing a lockdown on millions of its citizens. A measure which undoubtedly helped contain the virus within such a mammoth population. The same measure has now been introduced in Italy.
In terms of devastating effects on the world markets, needless to say quarantined workers affected production at the world’s factory (China) and disrupted supply chains from phones to cars. However, nothing came close to what the tourism industry is experiencing.
The cancellations of flights, hotels and conferences could only be compared to that of 9/11. Although not even, as, in 2001, people didn’t travel half as much, it wasn’t until at least 10 years later when low-cost airlines, booking.com and Airbnb were enabling travellers.
As expected, share prices of pharmaceutical companies rose but also that of video-conferencing software.
Here in Malta, we were not spared any drama. As the virus was taking its toll in Italy, port workers refused to handle Italian containers. Panic buying at supermarkets was predictable if not understandable.
The age of fake news was never more apparent and this outbreak will hopefully push people to be more sceptical
You quickly run out of supplies if you have a family of four to feed, your baby needs formula milk or your boy only eats one brand of biscuits.
A couple of days of missed catamaran imports and we would have been thrown into war-like shortages and chaos. This revealed our selfish nature in difficult times instead of a more communal sharing of resources while also highlighting our dependency on the importation of essentials.
Reverberations of such a widespread economic and psychological shock will probably be felt beyond 2020. Uncertainty and fear still loom in stock exchanges, schools, ITU wards and executive meetings.
Such slumps help trim the fat of corporations to weather the storm, however, only the financial fittest do. They will reconsider non-essential travel and resort to videoconferencing. For many countries, this could be a huge experiment in tele-working.
These technologies have been around for many years now but are still painful and nowhere as seamless as they should in this day and age. If successful, these could shape future workplaces.
Likewise, the healthcare and education sector could do with some forced modernising. Doctor to patient video calls as well as online student appraisals (replacing parents’ day) could well hit it off.
Due to the novel nature of the virus, it is still unknown if it will recede in summer. Other flu strains have returned after the hotter months. Will thermal screening at airports still be a thing next year? Is constant hand washing and coughing in elbow just a fad or will this prolonged concern develop new, healthier habits?
Another lesson which can be learned from the havoc wreaked by the coronavirus is how globalisation has made us vulnerable to very remote dangers. Globalisation enabled trade, travel, innovation and consumption to flourish as it provides the biggest possible stage.
However, this has exposed how one market in a previously unknown province in China landed on our shores and disrupted schedules of factories, hotels, schools and hospitals.
This makes the case for stronger international agencies like the WHO to safeguard our health as a species and not in terms of fragmented countries with imaginary borderlines.
It may not be that deadly, but if seasonal influenza kills half a million each year, would you be indifferent if we doubled that amount? It may have been easy at first to say that the media is blowing this out of proportion, but an infectious disease should never be taken lightly.
This dress-rehearsal may have bought us time to heed to Bill Gates’ warning that we are not ready for the next pandemic. Vaccine research funds dried out when SARS left the headlines, and an immense inequality exists between countries in terms of basic hygiene and healthcare facilities.
Given the relatively low death rate, would you consider this coronavirus the devil in disguise? Hopefully, this was a drill for us as a species to come to terms with our new vulnerabilities as global community.
Neville Zammit is economist and business analyst