The Labour Party would win June’s European elections by more than 40,000 votes over the Nationalists if Joseph Muscat were to stand, according to an internal party poll seen by Times of Malta.
At least 20,000 Labour voters who claim to be abstaining or mulling whether to vote, would go to the polls if the former prime minister was on the ballot sheet. And most of them would vote for him, the poll indicates.
Without Muscat on the ballot, the party would still win the elections with a majority of around 27,000 votes, but his return would score a far bigger landslide victory, almost certainly securing a fourth MEP seat.
The survey was conducted by leading statistician and pollster Vince Marmarà earlier this month, days after the former prime minister ignited prospects of a potential return to politics.
It indicates that 44 per cent of Labour voters who claim to have decided they will not vote in June will change their mind if Muscat runs, and all would vote for him as their number one preference.
Furthermore, two-thirds of Labour voters who say they are undecided would go out and vote if Muscat runs and 70 per cent of them would vote for him.
The poll reveals eight of every 10 Labour voters would vote for Muscat.
The former prime minister resigned in disgrace in 2020 in the wake of the Daphne Caruana Galizia murder revelations and has been dogged with claims of corruption since.
Muscat could get 100,000 votes
Depending on the turnout, Muscat could amass around 100,000 first count votes, significantly exceeding every other Maltese MEP candidate by far. The biggest MEP winners in history – Simon Busuttil, Miriam Dalli and Alfred Sant – fell short of 70,000 votes each at their peak electoral performances.
The figures, however, are no confirmation Muscat is throwing his name in the hat, senior party sources said. Insiders said Muscat and Prime Minister Robert Abela are weighing the numbers against the pros and cons of his candidature “to make a decision that is of the greatest benefit to the party”.
Sources said a Muscat candidature will almost certainly turn the election into a head-on battle between him and European Parliament president Roberta Metsola, who is also expected to be the runaway victor of the PN – although the poll appears to indicate he enjoys an advantage over her so far.
Before Muscat admitted he was mulling a political return last month, Marmarà conducted an opinion poll published in It-Torċa, which found Labour would win by 27,000 votes over PN – which would be the party’s first significant popularity dip since 2013.
"Muscat and Prime Minister Robert Abela are weighing the numbers against the pros and cons of his candidature “to make a decision that is of the greatest benefit to the party”
Political parties are known to regularly carry out internal polls to keep tabs on ongoing voter trends. Although the polls generally remain unpublished, they often predict voter intentions with remarkable accuracy.
‘I’ll tell you when I’ve made the decision’
Muscat’s possible return was greeted with delight by grassroots supporters who flooded social media.
Even the majority of Abela’s cabinet members confirmed they would publicly support Muscat as a candidate.
A month later, however, it is yet unclear whether Muscat will run and he insists he has not made up his mind yet.
“I will tell you what I’m going to do when I’ve made that decision,” he said, when contacted for comment this week.
Muscat’s return would extend Labour’s streak of landslide victories. But political observers are aware his return could also land the PL in hot water, as an impending magisterial inquiry over the hospitals’ scandal could lead to criminal action against the former prime minister.
Despite the evident political benefits of his candidature, both Abela and Muscat are not yet convinced it would be the best way forward for the party, the sources said.