Touted as cutting-edge systems that everyone needed, smartphones have enjoyed a position of ubiquity in the Western world for years. Long operating with fluctuating prices as new systems and components were released, modern premium smartphones like the iPhone are only slightly more expensive than their originators when adjusted for inflation.

In the 2020s, this could indicate a problem of stagnation, where further more expensive upgrades to hardware could be unnecessary for the bulk of users. This raises questions about the future trajectory of smartphone systems.

Could overall prices plummet alongside a decreasing cost of production and the need for significant upgrades, or will manufacturers attempt to reinvent the wheel to maintain current margins?

The necessity of future upgrades

Before looking at why future changes to mobile systems are becoming increasingly redundant, it’s important to consider how the vast majority of customers use their current mobile systems. One of the most common ways this occurs is with media playback. Video streaming services like Hulu and Netflix are capable of the highest-quality output on modern devices, both from home networks and mobile connections.

According to statistics from Gadgets360, the best-selling systems this year were the standard fare of iPhone and Samsung Galaxy machines. These include greater than full-HD resolution displays, and the ability to output at greater than a 60Hz refresh rate.

At this point, the small screen size of phones and the limited use of high refresh rate video means any upgrades to these systems are unnecessary. The same applies to music streaming systems like Spotify, where more expensive future options offer no appreciable advantages.

For years, this has been true for browsing and low-demand gaming, as demonstrated by popular services like William Hill Malta. Now fully featured on mobile systems, using these services includes general navigation, betting on sports, playing slots and table games, and much more.

Already running perfectly well on phones generations old, these types of systems set the stage where faster and expanded hardware added little to the experience. Given that this reality is reaching further into the smartphone world, previous assumptions of constantly pushing the envelope might have to change.

Lowering cost of production

The first solution which could be embraced by smartphone developers is to simply stop investing in newer technology where the costs outweigh the benefits. If the market decides to take this route, as many mid-range and budget developers will, the focus will instead shift to lowering the cost of production.

As standardised technologies become more streamlined, the components will become cheaper, and a competitive marketplace would push these savings onto users. Of course, this might not apply to the current premium device manufacturers, who history suggests are more likely to take another route.

As standardised technologies become more streamlined, the components will become cheaper. Photo: Pixabay

Raising an invisible bar

While there are always upgrades to be made in the hardware space, current steps forward within the mobile space are reaching increasingly into the realm of diminishing returns. With systems offering output that already approaches the limits of human perception, we’re operating in a time when the costliest upgrades can feature marginal results.

While device processing chips still represent a place where more power is beneficial, screen, camera, and speaker tech are all reaching a point where most users won't notice a side-by-side difference. In other words, premium devices are less contextually impressive than ever.

The takeaway from the mobile world of the 2020s is that we’re at a time where going out for premium devices is less necessary than ever unless you have a highly-specific use case. Instead, savvy users can stand assured that the right mid-range today can manage most tasks as well, and even budget options can be extremely capable.

The 2020s represent a new age, where revolution can be just as important as evolution, with implications of the cost of smartphone technology today that will set the smartphone stage for decades to come.

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