Poor consolation

No political analyst can now say that Labour did not get 50 per cent plus in an election. It is true that this was an election for local councils, this time in 22 out of the 68 around Malta and Gozo. What was interesting in this case was that the local elections were held on the same day as the voting for the European Parliament, with the difference that the local council votes were counted a week later. In the UK they were counted a couple of days before. In Italy they were counted at the same time.

What is particularly revealing in these results is that there was a substantial change on the Nationalist and Alternattiva Demokratika sides while the Labour Party confirmed its position. Although AD did relatively well in the EU election, polling almost 23,000 votes in the first count, with one-third of the electorate voting in local elections, it only managed to get about 1.5 per cent of the vote (it contested only three local councils), as compared to the 9.3 per cent of the first count votes in the earlier (or contemporaneous) election.

The same applies to the Nationalist Party, although the second result was more favourable to the PN than that of the EU election. The Nationalist Party lost again and the relative difference between the two major parties increased, with Labour obtaining 50.17 per cent of the votes.

Again, in the local elections the argument that there has been a drop in the number of votes does not hold water. In actual fact, there was an increase in voter turnout, as compared with past local elections. If anything, there can be no calculation that a party lost votes because its voters decided to stay at home in protest. The scenario, therefore, is that with an increased turnout, with both the Nationalists and Alternattiva again vying for votes as against Labour, the MLP was a definite winner.

There was also a realignment of seats. Labour won additional seats, Nationalist lost seats and both are equal in this respect now, while AD gained one. There was an interesting pattern in the seats won by independents, who overall also lost votes.

1998

Some political analyst may say that these local council elections are irrelevant. May I remind readers that in 1998, when local elections were held in the same towns and villages, and the Nationalist Party surpassed the Labour Party, the Leader of the Opposition at the time immediately started to clamour that the party in government (Labour at the time) had lost its majority as local elections are a clear indicator of the popular mood.

What is the situation now? The Nationalist Party is in a definite minority. Does it reflect on the popular approval of the party in government? Readers should remember 1998. Until the local elections, the Nationalist Party was acting very prudently in trying to topple the government, even though it was under relentless attack from within, especially during the budget debates and votes. When these elections were held in 1998, the situation changed dramatically and the Nationalist Party started to rally its forces to bring down the government, even applauding its former arch-enemy for causing trouble in his own camp.

Local elections are local elections and about local issues. But it is significant when they are coupled with another election which is supranational. One may say from one pole to another. National government should be somewhere in the middle.

These results have shown a very strong swing in favour of Labour. Suffice it to say that all the candidates fielded from Paola, going up to adjacent Sta Lucija, next door to Luqa and down the hill to Qormi, were all elected without fail. In Paola and Sta Lucija, which form an important part of the fourth district, Labour increased its percentage, and this constituency may well take over the role of being the best Labour constituency, returning four MPs out of five.

Gozo

The number of seats won by the Nationalist Party is certainly inflated where Gozo is concerned. I do not grudge the fact that a small village should have its local council. But when it comes to voting in the council it should be only fair that votes are weighted. Should six councils in Gozo have 30 councillors and six mayors as against 18 councillors and two mayors for Qormi and Luqa, which together are equivalent to the six local councils in Gozo which were being renewed this time? Voting should be weighted, especially where elections for local councils' organisations are concerned.

Whatever may be said, I do have a feeling that people are again divided and it is difficult to say where the majority lies. People now seem more concerned about who is going to win Euro 2004. In the meantime, the Nationalist Party can forget its two successive defeats in two different scenarios. There are so many big teams which are being eliminated. Poor consolation!