Prediction markets open betting on election, with Labour ahead

Robert Abela is the overwhelming favourite to be re-elected prime minister later this month, with ADPD most likely to perform best among all small parties, according to bets placed on the popular crypto prediction market Polymarket.

Widely considered the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket opened betting on Malta’s upcoming general election over the past weekend.

It currently features several markets asking punters to predict who will emerge as the winner, how many people will cast their ballot and which small party will fare best in the May 30 election.

In one market, opened on Friday, Abela is listed as the runaway favourite to be Malta’s next prime minister, with a 95% probability to Alex Borg’s 5%.

The market has attracted more than $21,000 worth of bets so far.

Another similar market predicts that Labour will win the election, citing a 94% probability, with PN trailing at 5%.

Meanwhile, a third market suggests that ADPD is the small party with the best chance of grabbing a seat in parliament, come June.

The market predicts that ADPD stands a 65% chance of coming third in this month’s elections, ahead of Momentum at 27% and Imperium Europa at 10%.

Polymarket works by asking punters to place bets on real-world outcomes, from sporting events to elections, with odds shifting as bets are placed.

This means that, unlike traditional opinion polls, Polymarket’s predictions are a reflection of betting lines, rather than public opinion.

Nevertheless, Polymarket has successfully predicted the outcome of several elections around the world.

In 2024, punters wagered over $3.2 billion on the US elections, most of them banking on a Trump victory. Earlier in the race, Polymarket users had also predicted that incumbent Joe Biden would withdraw from the race, after his calamitous performance in a pre-election debate.

Polymarket users also successfully predicted the outcome of elections in the UK and Argentina in recent years.

Betting on election results in Malta remains illegal, although it has long been believed to be rife on Malta’s black market.

Meanwhile, prediction markets such as Polymarket operate in a legal grey area, with the government recently saying it was exploring ways to regulate the growing field of prediction markets.

Polymarket has been banned or restricted in several countries across the world, including Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.