Prospects for 2003

The new year will see post-Cold War international relations becoming more clearly defined. The process of regional integration will continue to be a dominant feature of emerging global relations. The world's only superpower, the United States, will continue to develop a more active foreign policy agenda than during the 1990s but its global engagement will continue to be more multilateral than unilateral. A possible war against Iraq and the war on terrorism will be the main events that influence geo-strategic relations during the next twelve months.

2003 will usher in an era of regional relations in Europe that will completely eliminate the Cold War legacy. Every country in the international system is having to reassess its foreign policy in light of two basic developments in global relations - the different security climate that has resulted in the aftermath of the terror attacks of September 11, 2001 and the growing number of regional alliances that are taking shape.

In the next 12 months the contours of the post-Cold War era become much clearer as former foes such as the US and Russia join forces to try and manage contemporary security threats that risk upsetting global stability.

In 2003 the term "enlargement" will become a household name throughout Europe and around the world. The expansion of the European Union from 15 to as many as 25 member states and preparations for NATO to enlarge from 19 to 26 member states will consume all the diplomatic, political, and economic resources that Europe can muster. The world will be watching closely to see how the world's most effective political and security alliance, NATO, and the world's richest economic grouping, the EU, evolve as both embark upon the most ambitious phase since their creation.

The further advancement of regional integration in Europe dictates that the EU must develop a coherent common foreign and security policy so that it can contribute to the management of relations in its immediate vicinity and around the world.

Look out for the launching of the EU's Rapid Reaction Force that is likely to see its first deployment in Macedonia and could also become security guarantor of the peacekeeping mission in Bosnia. In addition to implementing its enlargement programme the EU will therefore also be dedicating resources to introducing a more comprehensive proximity policy that aims at nurturing co-operative ties with non-European countries in the Mediterranean area and the Black Sea area.

In 2003 the EU will have two Mediterranean presidencies: Greece takes over the Presidency between January and June and Italy will take over the helm between July and December. Both will seek to ensure that the EU succeeds in carrying out one of the most dynamic programmes in its history. Ratification of the EU enlargement process in all the member states and the initiative to compile a constitutional treaty in the Future of Europe Convention will transform the EU from a largely economic regional grouping into a more active global political and economic organisation.

The Greek Presidency will certainly seek to achieve a breakthrough in the Cyprus question and also support closer relations between the EU and Turkey in an effort to improve relations in the Aegean. A major date to watch during the Greek Presidency will be April 16, when all accession countries will be invited to participate in a ceremony in Athens to sign the EU Accession Treaty. In June the Greek Presidency will take stock of the EU ratification process and progress registered at the Convention on the Future of Europe at the Thessaloniki summit.

Unless there is a major delay or setback in the ratification process, the 10 countries that have been officially invited to join the EU at the Copenhagen Summit, including Malta, will become members in May 2004, in time to participate in the June 2004 elections for the European Parliament.

In the interim EU accession countries must now explain to their citizens the significance of the defining moment approaching them - EU enlargement will completely change the map of Europe with a more cohesive pattern of relations set to become the driving force in this part of the world.

One also hopes that the two Mediterranean EU presidencies will help to advance the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership process. Two important foreign ministerial meetings, the first in Greece in May and the second in Naples in December should seek to further advance the Euro-Med Partnership agenda in a much more dynamic manner. This must include overhauling the Euro-Med Partnership as Malta has been advocating in recent years.

The main indicators to monitor in this area are that concerning reactivation of the Charter for Peace and Stability, the idea of establishing a "Mediterranean Bank" and the objective of establishing a Euro-Med Foundation to promote a dialogue of cultures and civilisations takes place.

The recent United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) human development report on the Arab world provides a clear picture of the socio-economic challenges that developing countries along the southern shores of the Mediterranean must address if a north-south divide is not to become a permanent feature of relations in this part of the world.

All eyes in the Middle East will be on the outcome of the Palestinian and Israeli elections scheduled to take place in January. A return of the Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat administrations is certain to make it all but impossible for peace talks to be reactivated as both leaders are unprepared to compromise on the key issues that have derailed the peace process up to now. It will also be interesting to see if either the EU or the US is prepared to support a return to peace talks.

The US will focus on advancing its war on terrorism. This will include implementing its policy of regime change in Iraq and adopting a more aggressive military policy in regions where terrorist movements are known to be operating. As President Bush commences his re-election campaign in the latter part of the year he is likely to continue adopting a foreign policy agenda that seeks to further improve America's security interests.

Dr Calleya, an international relations analyst, extends his very best wishes for 2003 to all.