Pope Francis made two pertinent observations in one of his weekly Angelus addresses.
Firstly, he described Ukraine as a “martyred” country.
Secondly, while emphasising the need for “builders of peace” and “reconciliation”, he said that the current situation could be classified as a “world war”. Though displaying a hint of naïve wishful thinking, these remarks ought to be engaged with.
The news emerging from Ukraine is indeed saddening. It signals that the situation remains fraught, not only in terms of achieving peace but also for the general population’s well-being. Francis noted: “It is disturbing that the world is learning the geography of Ukraine through names such as Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol, Izium, Zaporizhzhia and other areas, which have become places of indescribable suffering and fear.”
In Bucha, approximately 458 bodies were found. 419 had signs of violence; nine of the victims were children. In Irpin, a mass grave containing the remains of 269 persons was discovered. Forensic examinations showed that several of the bodies were charred. Mariupol was subjected to a horrific siege and largely destroyed.
Izium is the site of unspeakable evil. Ten torture sites were created during the seven-month Russian occupation of this town. In a mass grave just outside the city, at least 30 bodies out of 447 had signs of torture, including gunshot wounds and broken limbs.
Zaporizhzhia is the relentless target of invading forces. It was only timely action which prevented a broader nuclear meltdown following an exchange between the two forces close to a nuclear plant.
The atrocious stories emerging from these cities demonstrate that Russia clearly breaches the Geneva Convention. Firstly, there is an outright prohibition on “outrages upon personal dignity, particularly humiliating and degrading treatment”. Secondly, all forms of torture are banned under this convention. The indiscriminate attacks on civilians further compound the horrors of this war.
After suffering several humiliating losses, Russia has increased its efforts to gain some track in the war.
Firstly, referenda were held in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regarding their joining the Russian Federation. These widely condemned referenda are purported to have the unlikely support of 98 per cent of the population. In a ceremony in the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin personally signed the agreements incorporating these territories within the Russian Federation.
The international community described these referenda as a “sham” exercise and their result will not be recognised.
There is much truth in this position. Some parts of these territories are still under Ukrainian control, meaning such a result is highly dubious and fraudulent. Nonetheless, this illegal annexation will allow Russia to claim that Ukraine is attacking its territories.
The second development concerned the partial mobilisation of military reservists in Russia. This is a reversal of Putin’s March declaration that reservists would not be called to fight in Ukraine. It was the first time since 1941 that Russians had been partially mobilised to fight.
The exact number of reservists is classified though the action itself signifies Putin’s dogged determination to see this war to its bitter end and the measures he is willing to take.
Many men called up to fight will be nothing more than cannon fodder. Surveys have pointed to the general level of fear and horror that this measure brought to ordinary Russians. Others tried to escape while some protests have been reported. Without proper training, the fear is palpable and justified. Some Western leaders have rightly described the move as an “act of desperation” by the Putin regime. Yet, at the same time, desperation knows no limits.
The third development was the increased offensive by Russia on Ukrainian territory. Missiles targeted Kyiv for the first time in months. Energy facilities in other parts of the country were also hit, thus damaging essential infrastructure and plunging parts of the country into chaos. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused those who conducted these attacks of being “savages and terrorists” and “absolute evil” for targeting “peaceful people” mercilessly.
Given these developments, what are the prospects for peace?
For the time being, they remain somewhat grim. The terms of lasting peace are hard to draw up. Moreover, the Russian Federation has shown absolute disdain for international law, meaning that any agreement could be breached at very short notice.
This is further compounded by Putin’s stake in gaining some victory from this war. To some extent, his future may depend on success or framing an outcome as a victory.
This condition cannot be met without Ukraine giving up more than it could be willing to bargain for. For example, if Putin requests that Ukraine cedes the occupied regions to Russia, it could lose up to 15 per cent of its territory. This will undoubtedly be unacceptable to both Ukraine and its international partners.
The recent developments have set the goalposts for peace even higher. Both governments are now in a situation, which is not easy to resolve.
There is no denying that the effects of the war have led to this becoming a global conflict – a ‘world war’ – if not through armed conflict, then by proxy since the effects of the war are being felt everywhere. The options the international community has at its disposal are, however, few and their effectiveness somewhat dubious.
Yet, with each passing day, the situation is likely to get worse.