Results of Cyprus talks: 'Zero'

Ending 40 years of conflict and 30 years of partition in Cyprus is not proving to be easy. Hopes that the prospects of EU membership may act as Cyprus's great pacifier have so far been dashed. According to Greek Cypriot sources the result of direct talks begun between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots on February 19 with UN mediation and which ended this week in Nicosia was "zero".

The next phase in the difficult negotiations started yesterday (March 24) in Bórgenstock just outside Lucerne, in Switzerland.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and freshly elected Greek Prime Minister Costantin Karamanlis are expected to join the four-way talks also involving representatives from the Greek and Turkish Cypriot sides.

But Rauf Denktas, the 80-year-old Turkish Cypriot leader, has declared he will stay away from the talks. This follows an earlier threat he made during a brief visit to Turkey that he was ready to boycott the talks and campaign for the rejection of the agreement among his fellow-Turkish Cypriots.

Turkey has tried to play down the significance of this move saying that Mr Denktash's presence in Bórgenstock was not absolutely necessary.

By being the first among the protagonists in the Cyprus talks to take such a negative step, Mr Denktash appears to have confirmed that he is the most lethal spanner in the works.

Of course, he does not see it that way. He blames the Greek Cypriot side for its intransigence and for failing to accept any of the Turkish side's sine qua nons to a final agreement. Mr Denktash claims he had shown readiness to relent a bit on them in order to make them easier for the Greek Cypriots to accept.

If the Turkish-Cypriot leader is not being helpful towards the successful conclusion of the talks, the Greek Cypriot public opinion does not seem to be supportive of a solution based on the Annan Plan either, notwithstanding the effort to blame the current stalemate on Mr Denktash.

According to the Cyprus Mail of March 9, a survey conducted by the Greek newspaper Phileleftheros found 62 per cent of Greek Cypriots to be against a solution based on the Annan Plan - so called because it was originally submitted by UN secretary general Kofi Annan.

Two other independent opinion polls showed those against to be 53 per cent and 54 per cent respectively. Some have explained these results as being due to the widespread lack of information on the content of the plan and the stalemate in the negotiations.

But it is also noteworthy that, up to the end of February, Diko, the party of Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos, was saying it will urge people to vote against the Annan Plan unless this is changed substantially.

What is certainly emerging is that the environment in which the talks are taking place has changed dramatically since last year. Turkey has every interest to see the talks succeed in order to improve its EU membership chances.

But the Greek Cypriots, who will join the EU on May 1, are not in a rush and have no real urgency to reach a final settlement. They are not prepared to sign any agreement. Meanwhile the Turkish Cypriots are split down the middle: Mr Denktash is not in a hurry. He claims that when Turkey eventually joins the EU, Northern Cyprus will do so too.

Turkish Cypriot Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Talat believes that if a solution is found to the Cyprus problem the Northern Turkish enclave will also be able to reap the benefits of EU membership as from May 1.

Ali Erel, chairman of the Turkish Cypriot Chamber of Commerce, argues that whatever the eventual cost of a settlement "it is going to make the cake bigger in both north and south".

On the Greek Cypriot side, more ominous warnings came from the governor of the Central Bank, Christodoulos Christodoulou, reported to have said that the economic burden of reunification may cripple the Cypriot economy and derail its plans for joining the eurozone.

Promises of financial aid have been coming from many quarters but such aid becomes available only if and when it is actually given by the donors. The Governor of the Central Bank is also wary of what is to happen to Cyprus's financial reserves given that these were built up by the Greek Cypriot government.

Greek Cypriots are also insisting very strongly against permanent derogations from EU law to Northern Cyprus particularly in the domain of the free movement of persons.

Turkish Cypriots fear that if many of the 200,000 or so Greek Cypriots kicked out of the northern part of the island after the 1974 Turkish invasion decide to reclaim their property in the north, the identity of the northern enclave will be substantially altered.

Other important obstacles that have still to be overcome besides the ones indicated here concern security and the status of Turkish settlers who moved to northern Cyprus from Turkey since the 1974 partition.