Risking crucial cornering

It made sense to divide the time left in government in two and to see what can be achieved within the next nine months and what could be delivered in the subsequent nine months," Dr Eddie Fenech Adami was reported to have told supporters at Balzan on June 23.

This outlook is like being willing to give birth to two babies, while at the same time forgetting that one mother cannot deliver (visible deliverable = VD) two babies, twins excluded, within 18 months unless a miscarriage takes place, thus aborting one of them or even both.

Leaving biological and fertility details aside, it would be appropriate to focus on the implications of the PM's forecast made at a time when the attention of the Maltese electorate was directed towards the shelving proposal ventilated by the Leader of the Opposition.

Eighteen months from now would take us towards the beginning of 2004, when EU enlargement is expected to take place. Yes, Dr Fenech Adami was hinting that his government intends to stay in power up to the last minute.

It clearly reveals that he wants to run for a general election in December 2003 (or early in January 2004?) asking the electorate to give him a confirmation for the ticket to Brussels to seal Malta's EU membership.

This scenario is being based on two hypotheses. The first is that the EU referendum, set, presumably, for March 2003 has a positive outcome for enlargement. The second assumption is that the electorate is willing to give an outgoing Prime Minister an amount of gratitude by re-electing his party to power for a fourth time in 16 years.

The Prime Minister would at some time (near Independence Day 2003?) confirm his determination to quit politics after seeing Malta join the EU. It would then be an act of utmost ingratitude were the electorate to vote his Nationalist Party out of power at such a crucial moment.

The climax

It may be that the Prime Minister has evaluated all options trying to eliminate all obstacles and to maximise the chances of winning both the EU referendum and the general election.

One such obstacle is likely to be posed by the local elections. Another swing in favour of Labour in the next local elections next March, would boost the MLP's prospects of winning the referendum. Therefore the possibility of the local council elections being held after, or simultaneously with the referendum, could not be that remote.

Given a positive referendum outcome, the PN government would embark on the second VD programme to demonstrate how effective they could now be, once the EU membership issue has been brought safely to harbour.

But who is behind such a strategy? Who is thinking that brides cannot afford to say no in front of the altar? Yes, it is the prerogative of the Prime Minister to determine the date of the general elections. But this privilege could also backfire if he is seen to hang on to power up to the very last minute.

The electorate could revolt in view of a strategy cornering voters to vote PN as the lesser of two evils. Assuming that the Leader of the Opposition would not change his views on membership, a vote in favour of Labour would be a vote against membership that would be so close in December 2003.

PN strategists seem to be suggesting that voters would not have the guts to reject membership at the eleventh hour. It all seems to be staged to a perfect crescendo, a total climax, with EU membership reconfirmed, Dr Fenech Adami victorious for the fifth or sixth time (when considering also the 1981 election and the referendum), the PN in power for almost 20 years...

Possible decline

Not all our dreams come true. And there are everyday constraints that urge us to decide earlier. One of these constraints is coming from Brussels. Brussels cannot afford an enlargement ceremony with one of the brides saying no at the very last minute. Thus the second nine months would have to be much shorter in case the EU holds to its enlargement roadmap.

One must note that Dr Fenech Adami made his assertion in front of supporters. It is not wise, though legitimate, for a party leader to state that his party intends to stay in power up to the last minute granted by the Constitution.

It could be that Dr Fenech Adami just wanted to send the Opposition on the wrong track as to the date of the general elections. With elections looming after a referendum, the MLP would start mobilising now in full swing. With two summers to go until the next general election, the MLP might be lulled into thinking that it has all the time in the world to start its final campaign.

Dr Fenech Adami did not tell his supporters that the first nine months are not the most decisive. By opening the possibility of another nine months he was not telling his supporters that they could take the first nine months lightly. On the contrary. Reading between the lines, the first and possibly the only nine months left are to be taken with utmost urgency.

The PN in government is determined to present the electorate with its performance during the last five years and especially during the last nine months of its tenure.

Why change a winning team?

According to the 18-month scenario, the outgoing PN government would also be in a position to 'deliver' another budget showing the electorate that it could outshine every vision of the MLP opposition with the slogan, "they promise, we fulfil". The electorate should only come to the conclusion, "when the PN is so effective, why try to rock the boat?"

With such a message the PN would be diverting the voters' attention from its own state. It hopes that the electorate would not be upset by the fact that the party has undergone no substantial renewal during the last 20 years. The PN hopes that the electorate does not take note, and if it does, that the party would be seen as the more acceptable alternative.

The PN should however bear in mind that much is at stake to be left to strategists of the lowest profile. The succession issue cannot be suppressed for 18 months. The party could emerge with a leadership deficit. The electorate could easily come to think that the PN has managed to take us near to Brussels with its very last breath and that it is high time to replace it.

Malta however needs to look forward and have a team to lead it for the next five challenging years. The PN is likely to be caught in a dilemma. On the one side, it would like to avoid a leadership debate at all costs. On the other hand, the electorate is unlikely to vote a party in power without knowing who the next prime minister would be.

Just in case the Dr Fenech Adami was meaning what he was saying at Balzan, he would still have ample time to make another split besides the first nine and the second nine months. While retaining the premiership, he could leave the leadership and the renewal of the party to another person, now, 18 months before the general elections.

A renewed party could become like a second and younger mother to secure a convincing victory at the general elections and thus really give birth to EU membership of Malta. As things are set now, the 'old' PN risks losing both the referendum and the election baby.