The prime minister will not settle on an election date until he takes stock of the COVID-19 situation around mid-summer, with party insiders saying the vote is not likely to happen until November at the earliest.
Robert Abela is not expected to take a decision on a date for the next general election until around August, once health authorities have a clearer indication of how the coronavirus pandemic has been contained, according to sources close to an internal strategy team working on the PL’s election plans.
While it is still premature to identify the exact date of the election, party insiders said a summer election had now been ruled out.
“After the year we’ve had, it is clear that businesses and the public need a summer in which businesses can start recouping loses and we can all enjoy some of the activities that have been prohibited,” one source on the team said.
The main determining factor in Abela’s mind, sources said, is the containment of the pandemic.
Internal Labour figures show that coronavirus and its spread is by far the greatest single issue on the electorate’s mind, with more than two-in-three highlighting this as their priority.
By way of contrast, back in 2013, the issue of high tariffs on water and electricity – at the time one of the main issues of the election campaign – was a top priority of around one in five.
“You cannot underestimate just how important the COVID situation is in this election. It is the deterring fact,” one senior party source said.
Meanwhile, speculation has been growing over a possible October date, with the rumour mill even churning out specific dates.
Party insiders, however, dismissed the notion, saying November was far more likely to be the earliest that the prime minister could realistically hold the vote.
The sequence detailed by sources would see an early budget held in the first week of October, followed by an announcement soon after. With the mandatory 35-day window election campaign period, that would mean a polling date would fall on either of the last two weekends of November.
Any later than that, the sources said, and the campaign would eat into the Christmas holidays – a no-go period for local politics since the 1981 election.
That said, the prime minister, whose prerogative is to announce the election date, is not under any major pressure to decide.
Recent polls put Labour in an almost unassailable lead over the Nationalist Party.
Abela is aware Malta could be faced with yet another rising tide of COVID-19 cases come autumn, if new variants of the viral strain emerge.
The full legislature draws to a close in June 2022 and could theoretically be extended for another three months, giving Abela ample time for an election in either autumn or spring of next year.
“Abela will pick his time to try to ride the wave of events in his favour. He has options,” said a party veteran who has worked on past election strategies, said.
Last month, Times of Malta reported how the Labour Party had started drafting a general election campaign strategy.
The prime minister has handpicked an internal strategy team that has started meeting on the fourth floor of the party’s Ħamrun headquarters.
The close-knit team features a number of former prime minister Joseph Muscat’s team.
It also includes a few people who worked on Abela’s internal election campaign, which saw him elected party leader last year.
The election campaign being pieced together at present is understood to be loosely based on the motif of a captain who has weathered the storm with calmer seas ahead.
This is a reference to both the handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the corruption and governance crisis Abela inherited from his predecessor.