Amid intense diplomatic activity, a military build-up and a war of words between Moscow and the West, it still remains unclear whether Russian troops massed along Ukraine’s border will launch an invasion. What is certain is that Europe is facing its worst security crisis in years and that any Russian invasion, besides being a clear violation of international law, would have very serious consequences for Europe. It would also plunge Russia’s relations with NATO and the EU to a new low not seen since the Cold War.
Russia has already shown it will not hesitate to use military force to pursue its goals in Ukraine – in 2014, it annexed Crimea and began supporting separatists in the Ukraine’s Donbas region, a conflict which left thousands dead and forced two million people to flee their homes.
It did this in spite of a 1994 agreement it signed with the US, the UK and Ukraine to respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in return for Kiev giving up its nuclear arsenal.
It is important that, in dealing with Russia, the West pursues its two-pronged approach of making it clear that Moscow would face very severe economic and other consequences in the event of an invasion and, at the same time, work tirelessly to find common ground with Russia so everybody’s security concerns are addressed.
It is also crucial that Europe and the US maintain their unity in addressing this crisis, something which has taken the Kremlin, which thrives on cracks in the transatlantic alliance, by surprise.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core concern is the possible inclusion of Ukraine in NATO. He wants a guarantee that the former Soviet republic will never be allowed to join the alliance and has also demanded that NATO reduce its military activities in Eastern countries and refrain from deploying missiles in countries near or bordering Russia.
There is no reason why diplomacy cannot address Russia’s security concerns.
Although NATO cannot explicity deny Ukraine the right to join the bloc, there is no prospect at all of it joining in the forseeable future.
What the two sides should be working towards is a new security pact in Europe – as proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron recently – which would include new controls on the deployment of troops and missiles in frontline countries (including Ukraine) and a new accord to replace the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which collapsed in 2018.
The recent proposals by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in response to Russia’s concerns certainly merit consideration by Moscow. These include “reciprocal commitments” by the US and Russia “to refrain from deploying offensive ground-launched missile systems and permanent forces with a combat mission in the territory of Ukraine” and talks about reducing nuclear weaponry and missile launchers.
It is also important that all sides work towards the revival of the 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements, something which US President Joe Biden stressed recently.
These agreements called for the withdrawal of foreign troops, illegal armed groups and heavy weapons from Ukraine, a ceasefire and prisoner exchanges and a dialogue on autonomy for two pro-Russia regions in accordance with Ukrainian law.
Diplomacy is the only rational option in this dangerous situation. Russia should also understand that, while it has military superiority over Ukraine, occupation of that country will not be easy.
Ukraine is better armed than ever before and a prolonged conflict would drain the Russian economy, increase Moscow’s isolation, give NATO a renewed sense of purpose and boost Ukrainian nationalism.
A new war in Europe is certainly not in anybody’s interest. We should be looking forward to shaping our post-pandemic strategy instead of having to worry about a new conflict involving nuclear-armed Russia