Sant's relaxed time frame

Two months ago, this column argued that it was highly unlikely that "prime minister" Alfred Sant would be able to obtain an EU deal before 2010. At a recent business breakfast, he was reported to have said that it might take two, four, or 10 years to obtain the deal; but he was relaxed about this since it was not a priority. In making this statement, Dr Sant managed to undermine several of his MLP colleagues and to confirm some of what Günter Verheugen has said. Not a bad morning's work.

Make no mistake: it is the 10-year estimate that is closest to the mark. Merely to get his views across to the EU states, Dr Sant will have to lobby, first, 24 countries; then, after 2007, between 26-28 countries. It exhausted this government to lobby 15 countries over a three-year period, and all that to obtain a package that Dr Sant scorns. Yet what Dr Sant wants will challenge EU trading principles. He will have to lobby much harder.

So Mr Verheugen was correct to state that a partnership agreement will take several years to negotiate. He was also not shooting his mouth off when he stated that if Malta goes for the partnership option we will, effectively, be grouped with Syria. In our region, Syria will be the only country left, within Dr Sant's relaxed time frame, that still has to strike an EU deal.

Why does Dr Sant's relaxed declaration undermine several of his colleagues? Consider this. What is Dr John Attard Montalto going to say to Maltese industrialists when they ask him if it is really true that a privileged trading agreement with Malta's largest trading partner is not a priority for Labour?

See where it leaves Mr Leo Brincat. Debating on TVM this week, he said that Labour has a record of negotiating toughly and coming up with excellent financial agreements. Put to one side the fact that these were negotiations over rents and aid, not trading principles. What does an agreement that could take up to 10 years to materialise have in common with previous Labour government agreements?

Take Dr Josè Herrera and other MLP politicians who have suggested that "partnership" could mutate into an even closer arrangement with the EU in due course. Some have even suggested that the way is left open for EU membership in just a few years' time, under better circumstances.

However, Dr Sant has now made it clear, yet again, that he does not see EU membership as desirable for Malta at any time this side of the next 15 years. For he is willing to wait 10 years to negotiate a "partnership". And it will take another handful of years to move on from there to negotiate membership.

So if EU membership is rejected at the March referendum, it will take Malta a generation before it can hope to join. So far this has been argued on the grounds that the EU will not take us seriously if we apply to join within a short while. But now we know for sure that the Labour leader will not even think it desirable before 2013.

Finally, consider where Dr Sant's relaxed declaration leaves Mr Alfred Mifsud. Mr Mifsud has been insisting on Malta's geo-strategic advantages for the EU. This, he says, is what will make the EU come to the table and accept Malta's key demands.

But now, after Dr Sant's declaration that it might take up to 10 years to get this blessed agreement, Mr Mifsud's argument about the EU's strategic need is greatly undermined. If this strategic need is so important for the EU, how come the MLP leader himself reckons that the EU might delay for up to 10 years its access to Malta's geo-strategic advantages?

Once again, Dr Sant's declaration suggests that it was Commissioner Verheugen who was correct. Mr Verheugen said, as politely as he could, that while the EU welcomed Malta as a member, it certainly had no great need for it.

Scribblers like myself are supposed to feel great satisfaction when their arguments are shown to be correct. In this case, however, the satisfaction is grim, at best. What pleasure is there in seeing one of your country's major parties going to the polls on a platform to deliver an agreement that, by its own admission, will take two or more legislatures to obtain?

ranierfsadni@europe.com