Saudi succession leaves no room for young princes

The death of King Fahd ushers in a new Saudi monarch but keeps power in the hands of an elderly generation of royals, raising doubts that future successions in the world's biggest oil exporter will pass as smoothly.

King Abdullah, who succeeded King Fahd on Monday, and the new Crown Prince Sultan are both octogenarians and unlikely to be more than transitional rulers. In turn they could be succeeded by princes barely 10 years their junior.

"Abdullah and Sultan are not just old, they are very old. So their reigns will be short," said Simon Henderson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East policy.

"The problem is going to be compounded because their successors are likely to be brothers or half-brothers rather than sons or nephews."

Only once has the Saudi throne passed from father to son, on the death of the kingdom's founder King Abdul-Aziz 52 years ago.

Since then five of his sons - Saud, Faisal, Khaled, Fahd and now Abdullah - have taken their turn and still more elderly princes are waiting in line, unlikely to surrender meekly their chance to rule despite advancing age.

Both King Fahd and his predecessor King Khaled suffered illness in their final years and had to hand some power to their successors before they died.

In private some Saudis talk of a "Brezhnev syndrome", referring to the ailing Soviet leader who died in 1982 and was followed by two elderly and short-lived successors.

In Saudi Arabia, where more than 60 per cent of the population is under 18, the advanced age of its rulers is even more striking.

A "Basic Law" introduced by King Fahd in 1992 brought hundreds of princes from the next generation into the running but in practice few observers expect them to take over soon.

"There has to be at least one major crisis - like a short reign of just a few weeks - before the Saudis choose any way of getting round this," Mr Henderson said.

The huge pool of potential candidates in the next generation also throws into question whether the extended ruling family could unite behind a single candidate.

King Abdullah has yet to name a second deputy, a post usually held by the future crown prince. Next in seniority is the conservative and powerful Interior Minister Prince Nayef, who is believed to be 71.

Riyadh Governor Prince Salman is two years younger than Prince Nayef but is also seen by diplomats as a possible future king.

"If Abdullah appoints Nayef or another of the old generation it will maintain that gap with many Saudis - a gap not just of age but of understanding," said Mai Yamani of the London-based Royal Institute for International Affairs.

The exact age of many of the brothers is uncertain because they were born in an impoverished bedouin society before discovery of oil, at a time when their father still carried his kingdom's wealth around by camel in a wooden chest.

Diplomats say the youngest of Abdul-Aziz's surviving sons, Muqrin, was born in 1943. But few of the founder's youngest sons have played a significant political role. Women are barred from the succession in the conservative Muslim kingdom.

Many of the next generation have already held office for several years. Prince Saud al-Faisal, son of the late King Faisal, has been Foreign Minister for three decades and Crown Prince Sultan's son Bandar was ambassador to Washington for more than 20 years before his resignation last month.

King Abdullah, Crown Prince Sultan and Prince Nayef have all appointed sons to senior positions in their respective spheres of control in the national guard, the army and interior ministry.