Saudis grapple with Iraq fears, US pressures

Saudi Arabia, under fire from within and without, is trying to avert a possible US-led war on Iraq that could damage the kingdom however it plays out.

De facto ruler Crown Prince Abdullah is also groping for ways to handle internal social and economic pressures and manage the post-September 11 tensions in US-Saudi relations straining a petro-military alliance that has long shaped the Middle East.

Riyadh floated two initiatives this week that analysts say reflect the royal family's jitters about Iraq and the difficulty of keeping the Americans sweet at a time when US policies in the Middle East evoke bitter resentment among many Saudis.

A Gulf diplomat said last Thursday Saudi Arabia was proposing an amnesty for all but the top Iraqis to spur a coup against President Saddam Hussein that would obviate the need for war.

He said the idea, which is likely to appeal to some US officials, would be put to a meeting in Turkey this week of the leaders of Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey.

Last week, Riyadh leaked the text of a draft Arab charter calling for "internal reform and enhanced political participation in the Arab states" which Crown Prince Abdullah is expected to submit to an Arab summit in Bahrain in March.

The notion of Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy allied to a deeply conservative Muslim religious establishment, preaching reform to fellow-Arab states may seem incongruous.

Sir Alan Munro, former British ambassador to Riyadh, noted that Crown Prince Abdullah had long sought to set Saudi Arabia on a path of reform, albeit slow-paced.

"This initiative catches that tide," he said. "But it is also an attempt to differentiate the gradual political and economic change favoured by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states from Iraq's dictatorial style - especially in view of US opinion that tends to bracket Saudi Arabia with Iraq."

Saudi rulers have yet to make clear what, if any, support they will provide to US forces in the event of any war with Iraq over its alleged weapons of mass destruction.

While they have no love for Saddam, they are unsettled by the prospect of a US-led invasion of their Gulf neighbour.

A quick US victory could install a new Iraqi government looking to crank up oil exports that could depress world oil prices with unwelcome consequences for the Saudi budget.

Even worse, a protracted conflict or post-war turmoil could split Iraq, whose Shi'ite Muslim majority might fall under Iranian influence or assert itself in ways that might inspire Saudi Arabia's own disaffected Shi'ite minority.

"Saudi Arabia is confronting relative decline whatever happens in Iraq," said Saudi researcher Mai Yamani.

She said Saudi talk of Arab reform "says nothing substantial about allowing people more political space in Saudi Arabia. It expresses the weakness and fear of the regime".

London-based Syrian analyst Mustafa Karkouti said the September 11 attacks, in which 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi nationals, had created new pressures for change which Arab rulers could no longer ignore.

"They are all tyrants and dictators to varying degrees. Crown Prince Abdullah wants to ensure the potential reform process in the Arab world does not go faster than Saudi Arabia's," he said.

Some of the pressure is external, with US hawks, many of them close to Israel, denouncing Saudi Arabia's clerics, schools and charities for promoting conditions that spawn anti-US militants such as al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

While many Saudis see US support for Israel against the Palestinians, and the presence of US forces in Islam's birthplace as the real sources of anti-American militancy, Saudi rulers cannot afford to alienate their US allies.

"September 11 destroyed the parameters of how Arab rulers handled relations among themselves and with the United States," said Middle East author Said Aburish. "Now they are feeling their way towards a new relationship."

But he said any Saudi drive for democracy might backfire because voters would express their anti-American sentiments.

Youssef Ibrahim, group editor of the Energy International Group, said Saudi Arabia's mixed signals over its Iraq policy reflected a deep-seated debate within the royal family.

"There is probably a significant dialogue within the Saudi ruling family: do we stick with America, which seems to be kicking us all the time, or redefine our strategic interest?"

Ibrahim said Crown Prince Abdullah's reform proposal was "another signal that the prince is going out of his way to avoid a confrontation with the United States".

"There is no apparent coherence to Saudi policy," he added.