Sharon keeps edge despite slide in polls

Ariel Sharon's popularity has slipped after new Palestinian suicide attacks, but analysts say the Israeli prime minister's grip on power remains firm.

Sharon's ratings in opinion polls have fallen as the nearly two-year-old Palestinian revolt against Israeli occupation drags on, and his problems have been compounded by difficulties winning support for the draft 2003 budget.

He is likely to be challenged by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the leadership of his Likud party and the right to represent it at the next general election, due in October 2003.

In that vote, newcomer Amram Mitzna, a dovish former general who has announced he would run for the leadership of the Labour party, could put up a better fight than current leader Defence Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer.

But analysts note Sharon's popularity remains above 50 per cent in the polls, and his threat earlier this week to call an early election if his coalition partners do not back the budget, shows he remains confident of victory.

"It isn't an empty threat," said Avraham Diskin, political science professor at Israel's Hebrew University. "Even with his popularity dropping in the polls, the seasoned Sharon knows he has relatively little at risk.

"It doesn't look as if the Labour Party has much chance in coming elections. People woke up from the Oslo dream and understand now that real peace is not around the corner," he said, referring to the 1993 Oslo interim peace accords with Palestinians.

Other analysts said Sharon could improve his standing in the next opinion polls and elections if he manages to slow the frequency of Palestinian suicide bombings.

"The Israeli electorate votes primarily on security, and then on economics," said Shmuel Sandler, a political science professor at Israel's Bar Ilan University.

By calling early elections, Sharon could also exploit the current disarray in the centre-left Labour Party that leaves the other traditional mainstream force in Israeli politics ill-equipped to put up an election fight.

Labour lawmakers are quitting the parliament one after another and the party's more dovish policies elicit little support after the deaths of about 600 Israelis in violence in which about 1,500 Palestinians have also been killed.

Palestinians rose up in September 2000 when talks on a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip broke down.

The ultra-Orthodox Shas, the third largest party with 17 of parliament's 120 seats, has challenged Sharon over social welfare cuts in the budget forced by higher military spending and a reduction in revenue caused by a serious recession.

But in Israel's "security first" atmosphere, Shas is widely expected to lose, not gain, in any election in the near future.

That could mean gains for Likud since many Shas voters would otherwise lean towards Sharon's party.

Sharon could also benefit from the fact that in the next election the prime minister will not be chosen through direct elections. Instead, the head of the party that cobbles together a governing bloc in parliament will become prime minister.

Even the arrival this week of fresh candidate Mitzna for the Labour party leadership is not likely to ruffle Sharon.

Mitzna, who is now mayor of Haifa, called for a swift return to peace talks with Palestinians, accusing Sharon of leading Israel to disaster.

"Mitzna has come in as the dark horse," said Hanan Crystal, political analyst for Israel Radio. "We were all surprised at the great support for him... which shows he could bring the party five more mandates than any other candidate."

But that still would not be enough to beat Likud, Crystal said. "Mitzna will just keep the party from total collapse. He won't be able to oust the Likud."

Sharon's real challenge will be maintaining his Likud leadership until the election as Netanyahu gains support among the right-wing.

The first test will come in October, when Sharon has called for new elections to Likud's controlling central committee, currently dominated by Netanyahu supporters.

"This will be the early battle. On October 8 we will know more or less who is in control," said Crystal, predicting that if Sharon loses, the early elections idea will be abandoned.

If Sharon beats Netanyahu, he is expected to coast home as the next prime minister. "In Israel you can never know, but in this case I am ready to risk my neck," Diskin said.

Any political prediction could yet be scuttled, however, by an unexpected move on the part of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat or Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. "Any play by Arafat or Saddam could gain or drop Sharon's rating," Crystal said.

And it would not be the first time. The spate of suicide bombings that followed the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995 has often been blamed for Shimon Peres's subsequent electoral loss to Netanyahu in 1996.

A lot could also rest on Washington and any decision by US President George W. Bush to launch a full-scale attack on Iraq, which during the 1991 Gulf War retaliated for American military assault with Scud missile strikes on Israel.

"We won't go into elections if we are going to be attacked by Iraq," said Sandler. "I would say everybody is waiting for Godot, or in this case, Bush."