Sliding public trust is Blair's Achilles' heel

With a huge majority in parliament, opinion poll leads and the British economy ticking over, Prime Minister Tony Blair's horizons may seem all silver lining and no cloud - but only at first glance.

Trust in his government is falling after a series of public-relations disasters laid bare its obsession with image and "spin" and, after five years in power, a largely supportive press pack has sharpened its claws. That may not mean election defeat next time, experts say, but could have a powerful impact on Blair's intention to persuade sceptical Britons to join Europe's single currency.

A recent poll for the BBC found 54 per cent of people trusted Blair less than they did a year ago. Only seven per cent said the opposite.

"There is clearly a haemorrhage of trust in the government," said Charles Kennedy, head of the opposition Liberal Democrats.

Allegations of dubious party donations - from newspaper and pornography magnate Richard Desmond and a steel tycoon who the government was accused of helping secure a major deal in Romania - have raised the spectre of sleaze.

Transport Secretary Stephen Byers, long under pressure after an adviser suggested the September 11 attacks on the United States were a good opportunity to release bad news at home unnoticed, resigned after the media hounded him for months.

And this week, the government dropped a formal complaint to Britain's media watchdog over reports Blair tried to secure himself a higher-profile role at the Queen Mother's funeral.

Roger Mortimore of pollsters MORI said it was still "almost inconceivable" that the opposition Conservatives would beat Blair in an election expected in 2005.

But his chances of winning an expected vote on the euro before then is in much more doubt.

Blair is keen to hold a referendum on joining Europe's single currency next year and will have to lead the campaign to convert a doubtful public.

"Trust really does matter on the euro," Mortimore said. "The only way Blair can win it is to say this is right and you must believe me. That will be much harder now than a few years ago."

Voter disaffection is likely to rise as the trust factor falls. Fewer than 60 per cent of the electorate bothered to vote at last year's general election.

"The status of parliament...is at its lowest since the introduction of a mass franchise," Robin Cook, the government's leader in parliament, told journalists at a lunch on Wednesday.

Blair told his cabinet on Thursday to focus on improving schools, hospitals, policing and transport, ignoring "attacks that came from other quarters".

But instead of shrugging off the negative headlines and focusing on its stated strategy of overhauling public services, the ruling Labour Party has so far maintained the aggressive media management that served it so well in opposition.

Danny Finkelstein, strategist for the last Conservative government, recognises the signs from its dying days but said at least then Prime Minister John Major was lagging in the polls. "Twelve points in front and Tony Blair sounds just as paranoid," he said.

"We have failed if we allow presentation to become more important than the substance," said Cook.

The handling of stories about Blair and the Queen Mother's funeral demonstrated an inability to rise above the fray.

The premier's office said this week the matter was resolved and allegations Blair intervened personally were disproved. But nobody made that charge and the publications involved have stuck by their story that Blair's officials acted on his behalf.